Price

Fund Flow

Thursday, 20 February 2020

Coronavirus outbreak

Recently due to Coronavirus outbreak for the past month, There are many panic selling in the financial markets shed 

1) STI - High 3285 Low 3112 = 173 points correction (5.26%)
2) Shanghai Composite Index - High 3127 Low 2685 = 442 points correction, Epicenter of Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak (14.13%)

3) Hang Seng Index - High 29149 Low 26145 = 3004 points correction (10.30%)
4) Dow Jone Composite Index - High 29373 Low 28177 = 1196 points correction (4.07%) 


SARs outbreak in Nov 2002 

1) STI - High 1485 Low 1205 = 280 points correction (18.85%)
2) Shanghai Composite Index - High 1573 Low 1311 = 262 points correction, Epicenter of Guangdong Province SARs Outbreak (16.65%)

3) Hang Seng Index - High 10246 Low 8331 = 1915 points correction (18.69%)
4) Dow Jone Composite Index - High 9043 Low 7416 = 1627 points correction (17.99%)

How do we assess the severity and impact by comparing SARs and Coronavirus?

Why do i think that the outbreak of Coronavirus is a short lived event which will likely end and see an improvement by end of April 2020. .

Firstly we observed the stock market indicator comparing outbreak of SARs and Coronavirus, 

STI being the orderly and true litmus indicator of world Financial Markets, stock market historical data is analyse between the SARs and Coronavirus outbreak the STI drop 280 (18.85%) during year 2002 SARs outbreak as compared to STI drop 173 (5.26%) points during Coronavirus outbreak, financial markets is always a forward indicator and not lagging indicator where market participants anticipate that Coronavirus would be a short lived event.

STI Historical Chart












Coronavirus outbreak - STI Chart











.
SARs outbreak - STI Chart












https://sg.news.yahoo.com/asian-markets-rebound-hopes-limited-virus-impact-042422742.html

Secondly we observe and analyze the lethality and mortality rate where you can find the information source onthe link below.

The Lethality and mortality rate of SARs is computed at 9.65% with 8069 infected case and numbers of death is 779 as compared to Coronavirus at current statistics indicate  75698 infected case and numbers of death is 2124 is computed at 2.81%.

https://thewuhanvirus.com/?fbclid=IwAR0s9xEKZb358GD4hRwsuO2_gyZjnr0VQwX9BCnjjWP8GnbUhmyWML_dXE0


Thirdly as illustrated by President Trump's speech on why Coronavirus will go away in April, where medical professional experts who view Coronavirus is a coomon cold or Flu bug which tend to be associated with seasonal factor and most Virus would not be able to withstand the warm and heated temperature to survive in a well ventilated and open area, hence not easily transmitted unless there is a very close proximity human to human interaction. 

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/02/will-the-new-coronavirus-go-away-in-april/

Fourth China has undertaken drastic measure on the containment  by locking down its province effectively restricting all movement by air, land and sea, for its population of 50 million residents, urge residents to stay at home quarantine themselves for safety purpose. 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/china-wuhan-coronavirus-lockdown-cities-working-quarantine-effe-12400400

Fifth vaccine are developed and approved to use for treatment and it should see more recovery cases happening.

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/china-approves-favilavir-covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR1af34TLH8-21883qT3ktQppYQlzyy6cVyY5BSv_wjt_9f3kzhyj8amM-o

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/coronavirus-china-asks-recovered-patients-to-donate-blood-for-plasma-treatment?fbclid=IwAR0UjgssAyYxiFeQql_XJ1kNRkd98pF9Irqx2Y1wVKBUOrC-5X-g9Zf9DPA

I feel compelling to write about the word "Panic".

Panic can be define as 

1) sudden uncontrollable fear or anxiety, often causing wildly unthinking behaviour.
2) a state of widespread financial alarm provoking hasty action..
3) a frenzied hurry to do something.

There are panic buying of grocery items like Toilet paper, Maggie Mee, Rice, Mask, Hand Sanitizers and condoms in Singapore an unusual panic behaviour exhibited when Singapore raised crisis alert to DORSCON Orange alert. 

https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/risk-assessment-raised-to-dorscon-orange.

Usually when there is a crisis equals to opportunity happened in the financial markets where Coronavirus caused a selloff in the stock markets. I understand the panic short selling behaviour of the market participants due to fear of a sharp selloff which triggers a techincal recession when stock indices plunge more than 20% and the global economies enter into a prolong recession. 

Due to Coronavirus indutries, many industries like tourism, transportation and retail food and beverage establishment are badly affected and dwindling sales volume which forced people to stay indoors to avoid getting infected with Coronavirus.

Lastly, I would like to acknowledge the sacrifice of the healthcare professionals made with their lives on edge. 

i wish everyone to stay calm and dont panic, panic does not help with the situation from improving. stay Safe and observant to take opportunity when it comes for bargain hunting. 




Monday, 20 January 2020

SPDR GLD ETF - Part 2

This is my first post for year 2020. Let's head off to a great start of the year and end with a bang.

My recent re-entry into SPDR GLD ETF listed in Singapore Exchange (SGX) on 2 December 2019 was timing with precision, Based on Technical Analysis (TA) and Fund Flow Analysis, i decided to take a long position sense that something was about to happen which caused Gold price to stage a rally and there was a geopolitical conflict between USA and Iran which happened on the 3 January 2020 caught many by surprise, where USA lauched a drone missile assassination on late Iran general Qassem Soleimani, followed by Iran launch an offensive retaliatory missile on USA airbase in Iraq Baghdad with no fatalities reported on 8 January 2020. It all started with an American civilian contractor was killed in a rocket attack in USA military base in iraq on 27 December 2019 followed by an attack on USA embassy in Baghdad.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/iran-quds-force-leader-vows-manly-revenge-soleimani-200120144819073.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/27/us/politics/american-rocket-attack-iraq.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_the_United_States_embassy_in_Baghdad












Monthly Chart With Technical Analysis - 13 November 2019















From the technical charts perspective, it is observed after reaching 150 USD price level, price has retraced to the low of 136 USD price level which is a 9.3% correction from recent high, the classical  neckline resistance turn support level is 132 to 135 USD price for accumulation. The price gap down has been filled after 6 years in 2019 since April 2013 saw week 8 to 12 with low 150.50 and week 15 to 19 with high 145. The price gap down is a resistance for Trader investor to take note and to profit taking their positions for re-entry again preferably in the range of 10% to 15% retracement in a healthy bull market environment. Currently swing trade setup is observed with a price target range of 165 USD to 175 USD price level before challenging all time high of 187 USD price level set in Oct 2011. Currently we are still in a bull market phase since year 2009 with year 2020 theme of investment for Commodities. US dollar is still trading at the peak hence downside pressure price level is anticipated accelerating Commodity Gold price rally in the coming years, having an inverse relationship.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-01-21/why-goldman-sachs-s-currie-is-bullish-on-commodities-in-2020-video

Gold Futures Monthly Chart 20.01.20






















To take a position in Gold, one can consider various financial instruments to suit you risk appetite and risk rewards ratio objective. Trader can Trade physical gold bar bullion (1Kg), or trade gold currency XAUUSD or trade SPDR GLD 10USD Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) listed in Singapore Exchange or gold mining company 

Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is define as "an investment fund traded on stock exchanges, much like stocks. An ETF holds assets such as stocks, commodities, or bonds and generally operates with an arbitrage mechanism designed to keep it trading close to its net asset value, although deviations can occasionally occur. Most ETFs track an index, such as a stock index or bond index. ETFs may be attractive as investments because of their low costs, tax efficiency, and stock-like features."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange-traded_fund

ETF can be considered as a mutual fund listed as securities in a stock exchange with lesser violatility where stock exchange operating hours are 9am to 5pm whereas in a Forex or Commodities Futures markets, it is operating 24/7 5 days a week with increased violatility.



Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.


Sunday, 15 September 2019

Voice Translator Device

I would like to share on which you are probably aware of a Voice Translator Device able to voice translate from A language to B langauge instantly.

The voice translator device is useful for business meeting presentation and Travellers who are unable to communicate with the natives.

Instead of buying a voice translator device which would cost at least USD $200 bucks for a device bought online, you could actually download an app called Google Translate to perform voice translation instantly, you dont have to pay any fees to perform instantly voice translation with ever changing technological advancement to improve our lives.

I am afraid that with the technology disruption, more businesses are under pressure especially so where the manufacturer of the voice translator device could see declining sales volume, trainers who are teaching particular popular language like Japanese, Korean, Italian, German and French language could see less participation.

I will show you how to voice translate from an English language to Japanese language without the need to purchase a voice translator device, you can do it free via your smart phone as simple as that, albeit the speed of translating is probably slower than the voice translator device.

Please click on my youtube video link to watch and remember to like and subscribe my video for future updates probably on global financial market outllook or sharing on how to leverage on technology without the need to spend your prceious dollars and cents.

Thank you for your support.

Please click on my youtube video channel link below to watch
https://youtu.be/0s-yNdbbCEs


Youtube link below is the how voice translator device operate.

https://youtu.be/Sx8h8rywRhI

https://youtu.be/MIPIMLZsuKU

https://youtu.be/sBQ6oWe-ACc



Tuesday, 10 September 2019

SPDR GLD ETF

This is my second post on Gold update on its recent move which i had taken my profits waiting for a retracement for further upside to retest Gold all time high at $1906 set in year September 2011.

My post on Gold on why late entry participants could get stop out should their psychology is weak trading very short term like intraday or contra trader and explain why price action matter instead of value approach. Low price creates value so how low price is determining the value by using Technical Analysis to determine value and time entry (Half Theory by Hu Li Yang).

Usually weak psychology traders or investors could get their long positions on SPDR GLD ETF who are late entry participants, stop out with a 10% correction which is too much to bear having a stop loss mentality, SPDR GLD ETF recently price run up to $150 USD price level set a 6 year high not seen since year 2013 with media headlines out pouring creating exuberance in commoditiy Gold. The over exuberance in commodity Gold could translate into a few reasons or factors leading to its price run up. One of them is an increase in tariffs on US China imports on 1st September 2019, Hong Kong unrest over an extradition bill impasse and BREXIT protests arising from 5 weeks parliament suspension, lower of Interest rates by US Fed Reserve Central Bank easing of monetary policy boost demand for commodity Gold as safe haven assets with expectations of inflationary pressure and weakening of US dollar.

Should trade tension between US China ease, gold could see a correction of around 10% to shake out weak psychology traders investors with mathematical equation of using $150 price level recent high X 0.9 (10%) = $135 or $135 X 0.85 (15%) = $127, my preferred entry price level would be between $132 to $137 where the classical neckline resistance turn support illustrate at Chart 2.

Recently, I had took profits on my long SPDR GLD ETF positions, i feel there is something worth to write and educate why some money are better left for the late entry participants to make which one trader has to forego due to increase violatility.

Gold Historical Charts With Technical Analysis - Chart 1


















Gold Historical Charts With Technical Analysis - Chart 2







My Trade Summary
















































































https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3024186/trump-raises-tariffs-us250-billion-chinese-imports-30-cent-25?fbclid=IwAR0raS7PymXi2YP8-9z62j4d4JHrP7asQbRuyA7CQsxHYIfRBGw5adTWhnI

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-27/central-bankers-new-found-love-of-gold-seen-bolstering-demand

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3023615/are-hong-kongs-protests-crushing-citys-role-chinas-greater?fbclid=IwAR28GzJg_y7kWdUOh-RqeRCUCHEZWkdqjjpIWDYEtmboHHyLItFjLAjy8Hg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-26/gold-gets-driven-toward-1-600-as-oldest-haven-shows-its-mettle?fbclid=IwAR30w2L4pFiTJ5uiNbB3BMcshdj5VxB3xSwRncbDz8Nj9qkTQuKbExGq21o



Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Thursday, 20 June 2019

Indofood Agri (SGX:5JS)

Disclaimer: I have long positions in Indofood Agri (SGX:5JS), this is not a recommedation to buy, illustrated for education purpose to share with the members of the public mostly misinformed retail investors comprising in the marketplace, I am also a small retail investor but specialise in fund flow analysis.

As an investor of Indofood Agri Ltd, i am surprised and disappointed by the voluntarily conditional takeover offer by Salim Group, tycoon of Indonesia of Indomie, because the takeover price is too low at SGD $0.28 (first offer) and $0.3275 (latest second offer), objective for their takeover understood is to delist and privatise Indofood Agri Ltd. Indofood Agri Ltd also emphasize on remaining cautious on its earnings momentum and its ability to return to pre 2017 earnings level although share price performance and valuations were undemanding.

So Indofood Agri Ltd Directors recommend retail investor to accept the offer unless they are able to obtain a higher valuation price than the offer price on the open market after accounting for brokerage and related costs. IFA quote the offer price not fair but reasonable.

The timing for takeover to delist Indofood Agri comes at the backdrop of global economy currently undergoing an expansion phase where the bull run is likely to continue for another few years to go. If Salim Group decide to force the takeover deal through, as an small retail investor, i have no control of but to accept the fate, when it comes to any future investment decision of mine to invest in any particular company, i would avoid Salim Group and its subsidiary as the major shareholder of any public listed company because retail investors are mostly value investor that stays loyal to the public listed company in good times and in bad times in any capital fund raising activity, and they are deprived of any growth opportunities of staying loyal to the public listed company. I really hope Salim Group can reconsider the delisting option, maintain listing in SGX so that investors can participate in the growth potential for Indfood Agri Ltd.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/indomie-maker%E2%80%99s-buyout-offer-for-indofood-agri-%E2%80%98not-fair-but-reasonable%E2%80%99-says-ifa

I observed Indofood Agri Ltd to be a slightly high beta stock, obtain the data source from Yahoo Finance, its reading is 1.30X in Beta as compare to market average of 1.0X as the benchmark as explained by Stockopedia.

High Beta stock theoretically tend to be violatile in nature hence riskier but it provide the potential for higher returns through higher returns.

As explained by Investopedia, Beta's definition is a reading of that is greater than 1.0 indicates that the security's price is theorectically more violatile than the market. For example, if a stock's beta is 1.20, it is assumed to be 20% more violatile than the market.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/5JS.SI/

https://www.dbs.com.sg/treasures/aics/templatedata/article/equity/data/en/DBSV/012014/IFAR_SP.xml

https://www.stockopedia.com/ratios/beta-stock-5114/


https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/beta.asp

So let's take a look at the Chart of Indofood Agri Ltd

Monthly Timeframe













Technical Analysis Part 1












Based on above chart although price is oscilliate in a downtrend movement but it had broke out of downtrending line resistance. An inverted fan is illustrated act as a resistance and support line touching all the peaks and troughs.

Applying technical analysis to determine overvalue, fair value and undervalue, there is an approach taught by Asian Investment Guru, Mr. Hu Li Yang, on his halving valuation method simply take the peak price as the range of overvalue, peak price divde by 2 halving method gives your fair value and further reduction of halving gives you undervalue region.

Indofood Agri Ltd all time high price of 2.93 in year 2007 applying halving valuation method would see fair value range at 1.465 and undervalue value range at 0.73 below price level. Hence it is considered that the takeover price of S$0.3275 price is at the extremely undervalue range but a premium considered at the all time low price of S$0.181 in year 2019.


Technical Analysis Part 2












Above Chart pattern suggest price channel movement upper orange color lines, median green color line and lower orange color lines drawn, so price is anticipated to reach the upper orange color lines connecting all the peaks as resistance and lower orange color lines connecting all the troughs as support.

There is a falling wedge pattern observed as the bullish chart pattern.

Fundamental on Maecro Outlook of Palm Oil

Indonesia is the largest producer of Palm Oil with Malaysia the second largest producer.

There are positive reports on the demand for Palm Oil, where the demand for Palm Oil is influence by the strength of US dollar, where ususally commodities is priced in USD for trade settlement. The stronger US Dollar has developed an inverse relationship to the demand of the commodities in particular. USD strength result in lower demand for commodities and weaker USD result in higher demand for commodities.

Based on Fund Flow USD (DXY) spot index has reach its peak hence more downward price pressure is anticipated hence boosting demand for commodities and other currencies. USD is pegged to quite a few asian currencies like Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) and Chinese Yuan (CNH), weaker USD suggest strengthening of Chinese Yuan (CNH) weakening Hong Kong Dollar (HKD).

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/bumper-year-ahead-for-palm-oil-imports-in-china/

https://www.ofimagazine.com/news/palm-oil-based-biodiesel-exports-to-china-and-eu-surge-in-first-quarter-201

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/12/21/chinas-palm-fuel-imports-soar-to-record/

SWOT Analysis (Micro on Palm Oil Sector)

Below article by David Dodwell on his opinion on future demand of Palm Oil is worth a read highlighting the environmental concerns affecting the demand of Palm Oil.

"Outside In by David Dodwell

Is the palm oil industry going up in smoke as market forces and environmental concerns collide?

  • Malaysia and Indonesia are grappling with an impending European Union ban on palm oil in biofuel combined with uncertain demand from the food industry, declining global oil prices and questions about the credibility of ‘sustainable’ plantations"
https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/3010629/palm-oil-industry-going-smoke-market-forces-and


Fund Flow Analysis

Smart monies are long bias in Palm Oil Futures, with swap dealers and large speculators seen reducing and accumulating.





Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Tuesday, 4 June 2019

KLCI Index Chart Analysis

Malaysia KLCI Index Analysis

I would like to touch on the outlook of the Malaysia KLCI index market after much cross examine and cross asset class analysis, that conclusion is KLCI is still bullish based on the principle of Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis and Fund Flow Analysis perspective.

Fundamental Analysis

Malaysia's economy is mainly export driven where it exports semiconductor & electronic products, palm oil, liquefied natural gas, petroleum, chemicals, machinery, vehicles, optical & scientific equipment, metals, rubber and woods at a value of 263 Billion in revenuemost to countries in descending order like China (16%), Singapore (14%), USA (13%), Japan (6.7%), Hong Kong (5.2%) and Thailand (4.1%).

please refer to the below link for more information.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Malaysia

Next we look at Trading Economics for Malaysia Economic Indicators, it is observed that USDMYR is currently trading at 4.18 level weaker than expected, recent high for USDMYR is 4.20 in November 2018. weaker currency boost exports couple with the fact that Malaysia Central Bank just cut interest rate from 3.25% to 3% in May 2019, a signals to boost economic activity through lower montary policy making to achieve higher exports objective. As an investor based on the fact that Malaysia Central Bank cut interest rate, investor could take a look at resource based sector and financial sector to position and include in their portfolio. resource based sector could see more exports and financial sector could see an increase in business lending activity. A weakening currency will result in an immense inflationary pressure felt by the Malaysians hence dampening more consumption. It is not surprising to see GDP growth rate fell slightly probably due to and influence by maecro economic conditions of Trade War impact between USA and China. A weakening currency tend to boost tourism activity in Malaysia to Genting Highlands Casino.

























Current Palm oil price is traded at 2069 RM at 31 May 2019.

Please refer to the below link for updated daily Palm Oil settlement price

http://www.mpoc.org.my/Daily_Palm_Oil_Prices.aspx

Technical Analysis

Asian Investment Guru Mr. Hu Li Yang once said that stock market is the window to economic growth and not vice versa, a booming stock market where investors made profits from tend to boost demand consumption in real economy, a faltering stock market would not be able to boost demand consumption. So lets take a look at Technical Charts of Bursa (1818)

Monthly Chart Historical 












Monthly Chart Historical  With Technical Analysis












Charts of Bursa is bullish with big ascending triangle chart formation seen using orange color and green color lines drawn. a profitable stock market signals investor are investing in Malaysia stock markets.if KLCI rise every investor makes profit hence would translate into capital expenditure spending. Price is observed to oscilliate between green color upper and lower lines known as price channel formation. Investor could consider to buy on dips touching lower green color lines as support. Price just broke November 2007 high of 7.425 and register all time high in May 2018 with 7.844 price level when global economies are in a rough patch resulting in USA and China Trade War tension. Price is expected to challenge 10 RM psychology level for Bursa (1818) and subsequently challenge 13 RM with simple mathematics formula using year 2007 high 7.42 - year 2009 low 1.91 = 5.51 difference in price + 7.42 year 2007 high with aprice target of 12.93.


Dow Jones Malaysia Stock Index Monthly Chart





















Dow Jones Malaysia Stock Index Monthly Chart with Technical Analysis




















Dow Jones Malaysia Stock Index is observed to be bullish with various bullish chart formation displayed
1) Upper and Lower Orange Green color lines drawn - Price Channel
2) Price Channel, Rectangle and Bull Pennant.
3) Ascending Triangle Chart Formation with an upside price target of 444 and 509 points respectively using simple mathematic formula year 2008 high of 295 - year 2009 low of 146 = difference of 149 points + year 2008 high 295 = 444 points first target and using year 2014 high 360 points - year 2009 low 146 = diffference of 214 points + year 2008 high 295 points = 509 points as second target.


Ishares MSCI Malaysia ETF Monthly Chart


















Ishares MSCI Malaysia ETF Monthly Chart with Technical Analysis


















Ishares MSCI Malaysia ETF is observed to be bullish with various bullish chart formation displayed
1) Upper and Lower Green color lines drawn - Price Channel
2) Price Channel, Rectangle and Bull Pennant.
3) Ascending Triangle Chart Formation with an upside price target of 55 to 56.


KLCI Index Monthly Histroical Chart Yahoo Finance













KLCI Index Monthly Histroical Chart Yahoo Finance with Technical Analysis













KLCI is observed to be bullish with various bullish chart formation displayed
1) Dark Blue Color lines drawn - Falling Wedge Chart Formation
2) Upper and Lower Light Blue color lines drawn - Price Channel
3) Orange color lines drawn - Price Channel, Rectangle and Bull Pennant.
4) Ascending Triangle Chart Formation with an upside points target of 2450 points or possibly 3000 psychology resistance points target for secular bull market.


Fund Flow Analysis

Smart monies are bullish bias having accumulate large position of long futures.





Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.


Wednesday, 10 April 2019

China Cosco Shipping Holdings Limited (601919)

I feel that there is something worth to write on this educational text book application on technical analysis on A share China Cosco (601919), one of the trade i have taken profit taking for the past few days approaching my target price set.























I would like to touch on 3 points namely, Fundamental Analysis (FA), Technical Analysis (TA) and Fund Flow Analysis (FFA)

Number 1 Point: on Fundamental Analysis, the reason why i decided to take a position on A share China Cosco is because it is a global shipping company where its presence is increasingly felt in the global stage. Baltic Dry Index reach at all time low of 291 points in year 2016 February 12th, where overcapacity in commodities seen its price slump affecting global trade activities follow with credit tightening is at the highest in year 2006 June with 5.255% that cause the financial crisis in year 2007 to 2009.

In the past China Cosco Shipping Holdings being a state owned enterprise of China had seen major corruption scandal that seen its value wiping off in the stock market. The worst is over for China Cosco currently trading in undervalue price. All time high for China Cosco (601919) had seen its share price at 60 (CNY) 60.35 in year 2007 October 19 pre financial crisis 2007-2009. The lowest price reach is 2.73 (CNY) in year 2013 August 2nd.



However ray of hope is shining on China Cosco (601919) and its fortune may overturn soon with the prospect of Baltic Dry Index bottoming in year 2016 with 291 points, had seen index points rallied to 1773 points in year 2018 August 3rd recent high, that is a whopping of 509% before trade war tension between US and China escalate further had caused BDI to drop to its recent low of 601 points in year 2019 February 8th.

For more detail reading up on Baltic Dry Index (BDI) which i wrote earlier please refer to the link http://contrariantraderinvestor.blogspot.com/2017/09/baltic-dry-index-bdi-chart-analysis.html

Number 2 Point: on Technical Analysis, refer to my chart attached source from Chartnexus

China Cosco A Share (601919) 3 Year Daily Chart












On October 2018, China Cosco (601919) reach recent low of 3.33 by using that as a benchmark couple with resistance classical line drawn the immediate resistance is at 6.66 (100%) simple mathematical formula and an useful strategy by Technical Analysis expert Mr. Hu Li Yang's rise by one fold meet resistance pressure 涨一倍埋压. Note that all time low price is 2.73 by using rise by one fold meet resistanc pressure strategy price works out to be 5.46 (CNY) may see resistance turn support and support turn resistance vice versa. if price 5.46 maetrialise after China Cosco recent high of price 6.58 reach past few days x .85% (safety of discount margin) it works out to be 5.59 not far from 5.46 price. Ideally investors can accumulate around price range of 5.26 to 5.59 ranging from (15% to 20% safety of discount margin).


China Cosco A Share (601919) 3 Year Daily Chart 











 China Cosco A Share (601919) 3 Year Daily Chart With Technical Analysis
Based on this chart, it is observed that classical neckline in upper light blue color hit 3 times and resisted at price 6.56, since price from recent low 3.33 rallied to 6.58 past few days high had seen almost 100% in profit, base on the assumption that price upon reaching 6.56 high from 3.33 low will there be any more horsepower for more upward thrust to break above resistance or price could see a temporary correction to the yellow rectangle line box for consolidation and camping near resistance for more upward price movement. It is notice that the impulsive wave has established from the bottom of yellow rectangle line box to reach 6.56 classical neckline drawn is not sustainable. I would preferred to see a price correction to around 15% to 20% to form a potential inverted head and shoulder chart pattern to time entry again. the next resistance could be 8.52 in sight.


China Cosco A Share (601919) Historical Chart


Above is the monthly historical chart with Technical Analysis illustrated.

Number 3 Point: Fund Flow Analysis is observed to be bullish because of more foreign capital inflows into China with MSCI A share inclusion, CNY drawn into IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDR), 





Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.