Price

Fund Flow

Monday, 9 March 2020

DBS Bank Ltd Technical Analysis

Today Financial Market experience a blood bath, STI dropped 188 points as I am writing. STI open 2891 and last traded at 2772 low of the day.

DBS is 14.9% weightage of STI index component index and all 3 banks listed in singapore account for 35.7% weightage of STI Index components.

STI component constituents - Weightage as of March 2020























https://sginvestors.io/analysts/sti-straits-times-index-constituents-target-price


Source from Wikipedia explains why DBS is also the largest bank in South East Asia by assets and amongst the larger bank in Asia that explains why Singapore is the 2nd or 3rd or even 4th world most important financial center in the world. Hence Financial Services industry is probably the largest contributor of Singapore GDP growth.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DBS_Bank

DBS was named world best bank by Euromoney magazine

https://www.dbs.com/newsroom/DBS_named_Worlds_Best_Bank_by_Euromoney_magazine

http://www.theasianbanker.com/ab500/2018-2019/largest-banks-asia-pacific

https://www.businessinsider.sg/dbs-uob-and-ocbc-shoot-up-ranking-of-worlds-500-most-valuable-brands-with-one-bank-rising-128-spots-from-last-year

Lets look at the technical Chart of DBS.

DBS Monthly Chart 6.3.20












I always adopt contrarian style different from the herds instinct when it comes to trading and investment.

I am not fearful but excited when everyone else is fearful and in extreme fear right now, as i am writing Violatitliy Index (VIX) hit day high 53.15 where psychology resistance 50 breaks, implying we are in extreme fear right now. DBS is currently trading at undervalue ripe for bargain hunting.

DBS open 22.30, day low 21.05 and last close at XXX. DBS is setup for swing trade right now with ttarget of 38 in sight. Feb 2016 low was 10.468 and reached price level of 27.91 high in May 2018, there is a difference of 17.442. using the difference 17.442 + day low 21.05 compute as 38.492 price target for the swing trade.





Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.












Thursday, 5 March 2020

Crude Oil WTi Chart Analysis - Part 2

As a Trader or Investor, we must adopt a contrarian strategy avoiding overcrowding, overbought, overvalue and overhype of an asset class financial instruments products.

There are so many bearish newsfeed on Crude Oil at the moment.

Recently i came across a news re-published from The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) by author Amrith Ramkumar on Crude Oil WTI that it had enter into a bear market with this headlines - Concerns about an international slowdown, coupled with swelling supplies, send crude on a six-week skid
"U.S. Crude Oil Enters Bear Market Due to Global-Growth Fears"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-on-track-for-bear-market-due-to-global-growth-fears-11559748511?fbclid=IwAR2PJJv_J5ob6EL2d8uQBxH7PjVSnNI2ait6Ylevq1p5doDjHzosg6d6-PQ

Bloomberg published an article on Crude Oil WTi on 1 March 2020 that "A $30 Oil Price is the real virus threat to OPEC"

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-01/a-30-oil-price-is-the-real-virus-threat-to-opec?fbclid=IwAR1kAsZc-q0HlV_b_6vCPJeGZOBcRF3b-odLp0_J4hZWwaTJlZ32vOYjB40


"Will we really see Negative oil demand growth this year" on 4 March 2020

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Will-We-Really-See-Negative-Oil-Demand-Growth-This-Year.html

"Goldman Sachs : Brent Oil Could drop to $45 in April" on 4 March 2020

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Goldman-Sachs-Brent-Oil-Could-Drop-To-45-In-April.html

"Coronavirus Panic is causing a worst case scenario for Oil" on 28 February 2020

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Coronavirus-Panic-Is-Causing-A-Worst-Case-Scenario-For-Oil.html

"Oil Prices in freefall as Pandemic fears grow" on 27 Februrary 2020

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-In-Freefall-As-Pandemic-Fears-Grow.html

I use this piece of article to cross reference with the Weekly Chart Technical Analysis of Crude Oil WTi and i found that this piece of news come at the right time to accumulate long positions because the price is at the lower band of the price channel low poised for a rebound technical rally. Many traders or investors would be psychology affected by this negative news published and may take a short position on Crude Oil WTi.

I understand media always like to overhype an issue of greed and fear, a famous quote by Warren Buffet be greedy when everyone are fearful and be fearful when everyone are greedy" This quote by reowned investor Warren Buffet is not easily applicable if one lacks understanding on psychology part of the trading or investing journey.

In this article how it derive Crude Oil WTi had enter a bear market so called technical bear is using April 2018 high with a drop of more than 20% which is around 76 estimated at the time dropped to 43 recent low on 2 March 2020.

The formula is computed by using 76 X 0.2 = 60 price and below is consider a technical bear market, My concern is why it was re-published at this time and i happened to pick up this piece of newsfeed initially published in 5 June 2019, if we did not look at the dates published carefully thought it is the most recent and up to date publications with the Headlines.

Weekly Chart With Technical Analysis









Base on Technicals, Crude Oil WTi is trading at undervalue range of lower band of price channel. Lower Band of price channel makes a nice support for Crude Oil to stage a rebound to 60 (medium band of price channel) and 80 at the upper band of the price channel once Coronavirus situation improves.

It is surprising that Crude Oil did not rally based on geopolitical latest conflict between Turkey and Syria and Coronavirus overshadow the Turky and Syria geopolitical conflict.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/world/europe/putin-erdogan-syria.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/world/middleeast/russia-turkey-syria-war-strikes.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article





Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.








Clarence Yo - Google Translate Tutorial

Monday, 2 March 2020

Dr. Copper Chart Analysis Part 2

I am updating the trend for Dr. Copper which is the pulse of the maecro economy.

I came across this article below published by Author Clive Maund on Kitco, that Dr.Copper, Crude Oil WTI, Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and China A50 index weakness would result in continue to call for Market crash soon.

I decide to chart Dr. Copper to analyse the current trends of Dr. Copper Price, My conclusion is we are still in a long term bull market will not enter any recession caused by Covid 19 - Coronavirus which will cause temporary economic activity strain on global economies where Industries like, shipping, logistics, retail & food & beverage, tourism, transportation are badly affected by 'fear". Consumer afraid of contracting coronavirus avoid large congregation of human traffic, Global supply chain are badly hit short term due to China cities are in a lockdown restricting human flow to stem contagion of coronavirus from spreading, Hence Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has clearly reflected in its current index fluctuations, BDI reached 2518 points in 4 September 2019 has seen crashed all the way down to 411 points in 10 February 2020. Phase 1 trade deal was signed on 15 January 2020

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox/whats-in-the-u-s-china-phase-1-trade-deal-idUSKBN1ZE2IF



























https://www.facebook.com/598617065/posts/10157134631957066/?d=n

Monthly Chart 














Dr. Copper Technical Chart Analysis was observed price of futures is consolidating in a price channel trend line supported by classical neckline resistance turn support.

Dr. Copper price is going to reverse its downward trend at the moment with most mainstream media overhype the fear of financial markets about to collapse with the outbreak of Black Swan Coronavirus which has an impact on the growth of second largest economy, China. The current PMI reading register a reading of 40.3

From Technicals perspective, swing trade setup for Dr. Copper with a price target of 4 USD price level in anticipation.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/29/china-pmi-factory-activity-shrank-at-fastest-rate-on-record-in-february.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/china-economy-caixinmarkit-february-manufacturing-pmi-amid-coronavirus.html




Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Thursday, 20 February 2020

Coronavirus outbreak

Recently due to Coronavirus outbreak for the past month, There are many panic selling in the financial markets shed in terms of points and percentage.

1) STI - High 3285 Low 3112 = 173 points correction (5.26%)
2) Shanghai Composite Index - High 3127 Low 2685 = 442 points correction, Epicenter of Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak (14.13%)

3) Hang Seng Index - High 29149 Low 26145 = 3004 points correction (10.30%)
4) Dow Jone Composite Index - High 29373 Low 28177 = 1196 points correction (4.07%) 


SARs outbreak in Nov 2002 

1) STI - High 1485 Low 1205 = 280 points correction (18.85%)
2) Shanghai Composite Index - High 1573 Low 1311 = 262 points correction, Epicenter of Guangdong Province SARs Outbreak (16.65%)

3) Hang Seng Index - High 10246 Low 8331 = 1915 points correction (18.69%)
4) Dow Jone Composite Index - High 9043 Low 7416 = 1627 points correction (17.99%)

How do we assess the severity and impact by comparing SARs and Coronavirus?

Why do i think that the outbreak of Coronavirus is a short lived event which will likely end and see an improvement by end of April 2020. .

Firstly we observed the stock market indicator comparing outbreak of SARs and Coronavirus, 

STI being the orderly and true litmus indicator of world Financial Markets, stock market historical data is analyse between the SARs and Coronavirus outbreak the STI drop 280 (18.85%) during year 2002 SARs outbreak as compared to STI drop 173 (5.26%) points during Coronavirus outbreak, financial markets is always a forward indicator and not lagging indicator where market participants anticipate that Coronavirus would be a short lived event.

STI Historical Chart












Coronavirus outbreak - STI Chart











.
SARs outbreak - STI Chart












https://sg.news.yahoo.com/asian-markets-rebound-hopes-limited-virus-impact-042422742.html

Secondly we observe and analyze the lethality and mortality rate where you can find the information source on the link below.

The Lethality and mortality rate of SARs is computed at 9.65% with 8069 infected case and numbers of death is 779 as compared to Coronavirus at current statistics indicate  75698 infected case and numbers of death is 2124 is computed at 2.81%.

https://thewuhanvirus.com/?fbclid=IwAR0s9xEKZb358GD4hRwsuO2_gyZjnr0VQwX9BCnjjWP8GnbUhmyWML_dXE0


Thirdly as illustrated by President Trump's speech on why Coronavirus will go away in April, where medical professional experts who view Coronavirus is a coomon cold or Flu bug which tend to be associated with seasonal factor and most Virus would not be able to withstand the warm and heated temperature to survive in a well ventilated and open area, hence not easily transmitted unless there is a very close proximity human to human interaction. 

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/02/will-the-new-coronavirus-go-away-in-april/

Fourth China has undertaken drastic measure on the containment  by locking down its province effectively restricting all movement by air, land and sea, for its population of 50 million residents, urge residents to stay at home quarantine themselves for safety purpose. 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/china-wuhan-coronavirus-lockdown-cities-working-quarantine-effe-12400400

Fifth vaccine are developed and approved to use for treatment and it should see more recovery cases happening.

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/china-approves-favilavir-covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR1af34TLH8-21883qT3ktQppYQlzyy6cVyY5BSv_wjt_9f3kzhyj8amM-o

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/coronavirus-china-asks-recovered-patients-to-donate-blood-for-plasma-treatment?fbclid=IwAR0UjgssAyYxiFeQql_XJ1kNRkd98pF9Irqx2Y1wVKBUOrC-5X-g9Zf9DPA

I feel compelling to write about the word "Panic".

Panic can be define as 

1) sudden uncontrollable fear or anxiety, often causing wildly unthinking behaviour.
2) a state of widespread financial alarm provoking hasty action..
3) a frenzied hurry to do something.

There are panic buying of grocery items like Toilet paper, Maggie Mee, Rice, Mask, Hand Sanitizers and condoms in Singapore an unusual panic behaviour exhibited when Singapore raised crisis alert to DORSCON Orange alert. 

https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/risk-assessment-raised-to-dorscon-orange.

Usually when there is a crisis equals to opportunity happened in the financial markets where Coronavirus caused a selloff in the stock markets. I understand the panic short selling behaviour of the market participants react due to fear of a sharp selloff which triggers a technical recession when stock indices plunge more than 20% and the global economies enter into a prolong recession. 

Due to Coronavirus indutries, many industries like tourism, transportation and retail food and beverage establishment are badly affected and dwindling sales volume which forced people to stay indoors to avoid getting infected with Coronavirus.

Lastly, I would like to acknowledge the sacrifice of the healthcare professionals made with their lives on edge. 

i wish everyone to stay calm and dont panic, panic does not help with the situation from improving. stay Safe and observant to take opportunity when it comes for bargain hunting. 




Monday, 20 January 2020

SPDR GLD ETF - Part 2

This is my first post for year 2020. Let's head off to a great start of the year and end with a bang.

My recent re-entry into SPDR GLD ETF listed in Singapore Exchange (SGX) on 2 December 2019 was timing with precision, Based on Technical Analysis (TA) and Fund Flow Analysis, i decided to take a long position sense that something was about to happen which caused Gold price to stage a rally and there was a geopolitical conflict between USA and Iran which happened on the 3 January 2020 caught many by surprise, where USA lauched a drone missile assassination on late Iran general Qassem Soleimani, followed by Iran launch an offensive retaliatory missile on USA airbase in Iraq Baghdad with no fatalities reported on 8 January 2020. It all started with an American civilian contractor was killed in a rocket attack in USA military base in iraq on 27 December 2019 followed by an attack on USA embassy in Baghdad.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/iran-quds-force-leader-vows-manly-revenge-soleimani-200120144819073.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/27/us/politics/american-rocket-attack-iraq.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_the_United_States_embassy_in_Baghdad












Monthly Chart With Technical Analysis - 13 November 2019















From the technical charts perspective, it is observed after reaching 150 USD price level, price has retraced to the low of 136 USD price level which is a 9.3% correction from recent high, the classical  neckline resistance turn support level is 132 to 135 USD price for accumulation. The price gap down has been filled after 6 years in 2019 since April 2013 saw week 8 to 12 with low 150.50 and week 15 to 19 with high 145. The price gap down is a resistance for Trader investor to take note and to profit taking their positions for re-entry again preferably in the range of 10% to 15% retracement in a healthy bull market environment. Currently swing trade setup is observed with a price target range of 165 USD to 175 USD price level before challenging all time high of 187 USD price level set in Oct 2011. Currently we are still in a bull market phase since year 2009 with year 2020 theme of investment for Commodities. US dollar is still trading at the peak hence downside pressure price level is anticipated accelerating Commodity Gold price rally in the coming years, having an inverse relationship.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-01-21/why-goldman-sachs-s-currie-is-bullish-on-commodities-in-2020-video

Gold Futures Monthly Chart 20.01.20






















To take a position in Gold, one can consider various financial instruments to suit you risk appetite and risk rewards ratio objective. Trader can Trade physical gold bar bullion (1Kg), or trade gold currency XAUUSD or trade SPDR GLD 10USD Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) listed in Singapore Exchange or gold mining company 

Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is define as "an investment fund traded on stock exchanges, much like stocks. An ETF holds assets such as stocks, commodities, or bonds and generally operates with an arbitrage mechanism designed to keep it trading close to its net asset value, although deviations can occasionally occur. Most ETFs track an index, such as a stock index or bond index. ETFs may be attractive as investments because of their low costs, tax efficiency, and stock-like features."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange-traded_fund

ETF can be considered as a mutual fund listed as securities in a stock exchange with lesser violatility where stock exchange operating hours are 9am to 5pm whereas in a Forex or Commodities Futures markets, it is operating 24/7 5 days a week with increased violatility.



Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.


Sunday, 15 September 2019

Voice Translator Device

I would like to share on which you are probably aware of a Voice Translator Device able to voice translate from A language to B langauge instantly.

The voice translator device is useful for business meeting presentation and Travellers who are unable to communicate with the natives.

Instead of buying a voice translator device which would cost at least USD $200 bucks for a device bought online, you could actually download an app called Google Translate to perform voice translation instantly, you dont have to pay any fees to perform instantly voice translation with ever changing technological advancement to improve our lives.

I am afraid that with the technology disruption, more businesses are under pressure especially so where the manufacturer of the voice translator device could see declining sales volume, trainers who are teaching particular popular language like Japanese, Korean, Italian, German and French language could see less participation.

I will show you how to voice translate from an English language to Japanese language without the need to purchase a voice translator device, you can do it free via your smart phone as simple as that, albeit the speed of translating is probably slower than the voice translator device.

Please click on my youtube video link to watch and remember to like and subscribe my video for future updates probably on global financial market outllook or sharing on how to leverage on technology without the need to spend your prceious dollars and cents.

Thank you for your support.

Please click on my youtube video channel link below to watch
https://youtu.be/0s-yNdbbCEs


Youtube link below is the how voice translator device operate.

https://youtu.be/Sx8h8rywRhI

https://youtu.be/MIPIMLZsuKU

https://youtu.be/sBQ6oWe-ACc