Price

Fund Flow

Monday, 31 December 2018

Straits Times Index Chart Analysis Part 2

It has been 1 year and 3 months since i last updated on the Straits Times Index (STI) the worldwide true litmus indicator of a bullish or bearish market environment quote by Mr. Donovan Ang a technical analysis expert.

Singapore one of the Asian Tigers in the 1990s with Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan known as "Four Asian Dragons or Four Little Dragons, are the economies of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, which underwent rapid industrialization and maintained exceptionally high growth rates (in excess of 7 percent a year) between the early 1960s (mid-1950s for Hong Kong) and 1990s. By the early 21st century, all four had developed into high-income economies, specializing in areas of competitive advantage. Hong Kong and Singapore have become world-leading international financial centres, whereas South Korea and Taiwan are world leaders in manufacturing electronic components and devices. Their economic success stories have served as role models for many developing countries, especially the Tiger Cub Economies of southeast Asia.
A controversial World Bank report (The East Asian Miracle 1993) credited neoliberal policies with the responsibility for the boom, including maintenance of export-oriented policies, low taxes, and minimal welfare states; institutional analysis also states some state intervention was involved.[4] However, others argued that industrial policy and state intervention had a much greater influence than the World Bank report suggested", quote by Wikipedia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Asian_Tigers

Year 2018 had been an unexpected tumultuous year in global financial markets, seen a technical bear markets across commodities, Indices, equities and foreign exchange currencies with 20% or more selloff from their recent highs.

lets take a look at STI technical analysis chart on what year 2019 and beyond will present an opportunity.

STI Monthly Historical 28.12.18
















STI Monthly Historical Technical Analysis Chart 28.12.18
















Based on the charts, STI historical all time high is 3906 points in year 2007, STI displays a bullish chart formation listed
1) Ascending Triangle using double blue color lines classical neckline that connects all the peaks couple with red color uptrending support line that connects all the higher lows trough.
2) Rounding Bottom where am orange color line that connects the peaks and troughs, using simple mathematics formula, we can identify the minimum target of Y axis drawn. It is observed an orange color vertical line drawn name Y axis that connects the green color neckline and the upper blue color neckline, 3906 - 2521 = 1385 + 3906 = 5285 points as the minimum target.

STI had been trading rangebound or consolidating from year 2010 till now have not break all time high of 3906 points yet.




Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Monday, 24 December 2018

BRIC Theme for year 2019 - Brazil Bovespa Stock Index Chart Analysis

Brazil Bovespa Index is part of BRIC emerging market theme that has seen a sell off rout in year 2018 on the backdrop of rising US dollar, rising Treasury yields and emerging markets BRIC and VISTA had their currencies weakening, and stock indexes steep correction.

Brazil Bovespa Stock Index had been plague by corruption, political instability and high US dollar denominated debts.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/strong-dollar-puts-these-emerging-markets-in-danger-of-following-turkeys-slide-2018-08-23

Emerging markets theme BRIC comprising Brazil, Russia, India and China while Frontier markets VISTA theme comprising Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Argentina.

With post G20 meeting hosted by Argentina concluded on 30 November to 1 December, it was a successful meeting between USA and China where they had implement trade war tariff truce for 90 days.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/a-look-at-what-happened-at-the-g-20-summit-in-argentina/ar-BBQo4La?li=AAgfIYZ

Let us take a look at the charts of BRIC theme attached is Brazil Bovespa Stock Index.

We are still at 50th percentile of the bullish market which had many more years to go. Charts display bullish strength where Brazil Bovespa Stock Index is trading at 91200 points high (all time highI in December 2018 after Brazil post presidential election taking place in late October 2018 seen Mr. Bolsonaro appointing as the next President of Brazil. Brazilean Real trading against US dollar at recent low of 3.64301 in 29 October now seen price rise and its currency weakening to 3.91714 high in 15 December 2018. All time high for Brazilian Real trading against US dollar is 4.17768 in 24 September 2015, recent high reach 4.17291 seen in 10 September 2018.

With the recent emerging markets technical correction of over 20% enter into a technical bear market, lots of financial analyst expert are calling for a full blown financial crisis bear market to take place in year 2019.

So are we going to see a financial crisis taking place soon?

Brazil Bovespa Stock Index Monthly Chart Historical 13 Dec 2018


















Brazil Bovespa Stoock Index Monthly Chart Historical 13 Dec 2018 with Technical Analysis









Based on above Chart Technical Analysis, Brazil Bovespa Stock Index is probably the weakest stock market globally that hit all time high in year 2018 is 91,200 points, the only emerging stock market index that breaks all time high despite emerging market selloff in year 2018. Above Chart display bullish signals that Brazil Bovespa Stock index reach 87,500 points in February 2018 had seen a correction retracement to around 70,000 points in mid June 2018, a whopping 20% correction, classified a technical bear market taking place and price had seen rising till date. Are we in a bear market proclaimed by all the investment experts which is schedule to hit in year 2019 a full blown financial crisis. The above technical chart display a symmetric triangle drawn in light blue color lines. trend had indeed reverse for Brazil financial markets after breaking above the downtrend line in upper blue color that connects all the peaks, act as a resistance line. Red color lines drawn refers to the Classical neckline that connects all the peaks and troughs which forms a support and resistance.

iShares MSCI Brazil Index 14 Dec 2018




















iShares MSCI Brazil Index 14 Dec 2018 with Technical Analysis


Above Technical Analysis chart display bullish chart formation.
1) Big Falling wedge in blue color lines.
2) Symmetric Triangle upper blue color line couple with green color uptrending support line
3) Ascending Triangle upper purple color line couple with green color  uptrending support line.

All time high in year 2008 is 101.40 (overvalue), 101.40 / 2 = 50.7 (Fair Value) and 50.7/2 = 25.35 (undervalue), price seen hit 17.37 low in year 2016 and had price risen till date last traded at 38.33 in 13 December 2018. All time low is register at 5.49 in year 2003.

Swing price setup is using price difference between 47.42 high in Jan 2018 - 17.37 (low in 2016) = 30.05 + 30.66 (June 2018 low) = 60.71.

UsdBrazilianReal 23 December Monthly Historical Chart 2018
























UsdBrazilianReal 23 December Monthly Historical Chart 2018 with Technical Analysis




















Technical Analysis for UsdBrazilianReal is very bullish with most chart pattern that display 
1) Ascending Triangle blue color line couple with red color line
2) Rounding bottom green color line, possible inverted head and shoulder chart pattern. 
3) Cup and handle chart pattern on chart 2.

But i stay with the bearish setup of a swing to retest red color support line and ultimately retest purple color line classical support line that connect all the peaks and troughs as the next critical support. 






Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Sunday, 16 December 2018

BRIC Theme for year 2019 - Russian Trading System (RTS) Index Chart Analysis

Russian Trading System (RTS) Index is part of BRIC emerging market theme that has seen a sell off rout in year 2018 on the backdrop of rising US dollar, rising Treasury yields and emerging markets BRIC and VISTA had their currencies weakening, and stock indexes steep correction.

Emerging markets theme BRIC comprising Brazil, Russia, India and China while Frontier markets VISTA theme comprising Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Argentina.

With post G20 meeting hosted by Argentina concluded on 30 November to 1 December, it was a successful meeting between USA and China where they had implement trade war tariff truce for 90 days.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/a-look-at-what-happened-at-the-g-20-summit-in-argentina/ar-BBQo4La?li=AAgfIYZ

Let us take a look at the charts of BRIC theme attached is Russian Trading System Index (RTS).

We are still at 50th percentile of the bullish market which had many more years to go. Charts display bullish strength where Russian Trading System (RTS) Index had seen a minor market correction to 1039 points in year 2018 low after hitting 1339 points high in year 2018, now trading at 1116 points after hitting recent Jan 2018 high of 1339 points, 22.4% correction from recent high.

With the recent emerging markets technical correction of over 20% enter into a technical bear market, lots of financial analyst expert are calling for a full blown financial crisis bear market to take place in year 2019.

So are we going to see a financial crisis taking place soon?

Russian Trading System (RTS) Index Monthly Chart Historical 14 Dec 2018

















Russian Trading System (RTS) Index Monthly Chart Historical 14 Dec 2018 with Technical Analysis

Based on above Chart Technical Analysis, all time high in year 2008 is 2498 points, fair value is derived at 1249 points, using simple mathematics formula 1/2 theory following Asian Investment Master Mr. Hu Liyang, Leon's teaching. Undervalue is derived at 624 points using 1/2 theory again. Lets take a look at the chart back test this 1/2 theory by Asian Investment Master Mr. Hu Liyang, Leon, price find a bottom at 492 points in year 2009 after breaching 624 points undervalue zone for extreme bear market sentiments to be the pivot point of trend reversal. In year 2016 it breach 624 points undervalue zone again to trade at 607 points low. Since hitting 607 points low,  it rallied up to 1339 points in Jan 2018, where the fair value zone is 1249 points, resistance point and see a retracement to current 1116 points amid market violatility. Recent low 1039 points in Aug/Sept is a
% correction seen back test the downtrend line in blue color that connect all the lower high peaks, resistance turn support line. green color line refers to classical support line usually connects all the peaks and troughs range between 492 points to 600 points. blue color lines suggest bullish chart pattern symmetric triangle had price broken out, back test to find support. A target of 3000 points is expected for Russian Trading System (RTS) index.


iShares MSCI Russia Capped ETF 14 Dec 2018


















iShares MSCI Russia Capped ETF 14 Dec 2018 with Technical Analysis


















Above ETF chart Technical Analysis suggest a bullish chart formation of a big rounding bottom in green color drawn line. Double blue color lines refers to classical support line that connects all the peaks and troughs, usually where the strong support is couple with the green line as additional support. A target of  92 price is expected using y axis difference of 38 price to be added to the all time high of 54 price which a wavelength is formed.

Vaneck Vectors Russia ETF 12 Dec 2018


Vaneck Vectors Russia ETF 12 Dec 2018 with Technical Analysis



















Above ETF chart Technical Analysis suggest a bullish chart formation a potential big ascending triangle refers to upper green color line and red color line, an uptrending line that connect all higher low as support. An observation made is price already broke out of downtrending lines known to be price channel drawn in upper and lower blue color lines with median orange color lines.price had found a support at lower green color line refers to classical support that connect all the peaks and troughs. An imaginary big rounding bottom line is observed as well. A target of  between 50 to 60 price is expected using y axis difference of 25 price to be added to the all time high of 35 price which a wavelength is formed.

Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3X shares 14.12.18



















Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3X shares 14.12.18 with Technical Analysis



















Based on the charts, a downtrend price channel lines are drawn using upper and lower blue color lines with the median in green color line. price is consolidating in a range suggest selling pressure is over. it coincides with the above charts that rally in emerging markets are approaching amidst current 50th percentile bullish market environment.





Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Saturday, 15 December 2018

VISTA Theme for year 2019 - South Africa Index Chart Analysis

Ishares MSCI South Africa Index is part of VISTA theme that has seen a sell off rout in year 2018 on the backdrop of rising US dollar, rising Treasury yields and emerging markets BRIC and VISTA had their currencies weakening, and stock indexes steep correction.

Emerging markets theme BRIC comprising Brazil, Russia, India and China while VISTA theme comprising Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Argentina.

Turkey part of VISTA is said to have maintain a high US dollar denominated debt.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-reasons-why-the-selloff-in-turkeys-lira-matters-to-global-markets-2018-08-10

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-lira-selloff-compares-to-turkeys-previous-crises-2018-08-14

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/13/turkey-lira-crisis-knocks-emerging-market-currencies-to-multi-year-low.html

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-says-attack-on-economy-no-different-from-attack-on-flag

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_currency_and_debt_crisis,_2018

https://www.google.com.sg/search?q=turkey+sell+off&rlz=1C1CHBF_enSG798SG799&oq=turkey+sell+off&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l2.5299j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8


With post G20 meeting hosted by Argentina concluded on 30 November to 1 December, it was a successful meeting between USA and China where they had implement trade war tariff truce for 90 days.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/a-look-at-what-happened-at-the-g-20-summit-in-argentina/ar-BBQo4La?li=AAgfIYZ

Let us take a look at the charts of VISTA theme attached is iShares MSCI South Africa Index.

We are still at 50th percentile of the bullish market which had many more years to go. Charts display bullish strength where iShares MSCI South Africa Index had seen a major bear market correction to 25.78 points in year 2009 after hitting 152.96 points high in year 2007, now trading at 51.42 after hitting recent Jan 2018 high of 75.96 points, 38% correction from recent high.

With the recent emerging markets technical correction of over 20% enter into a technical bear market, lots of financial analyst expert are calling for a bear market to take place in year 2019.

Our of proportion VISTA theme markets comprising Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Argentina, 4 out of 5 are in a stronger uptrending stock market except South Africa. So are we going to see a financial crisis taking place soon?

iShares MSCI South Africa Index Monthly Chart Historical 7 Dec 2018

















iShares MSCI South Africa Index Monthly Chart Historical 7 Dec 2018 with Technical Analysis


















Based on above Chart Technical Analysis, all time high in year 2007 is 152.96, fair value is derived at 76.48 points, using simple mathematics formula 1/2 theory following Asian Investment Master Mr. Hu Liyang, Leon's teaching. Undervalue is derived at 38.24 points using 1/2 theory again. Lets take a look at the chart back test this 1/2 theory by Asian Investment Master Mr. Hu Liyang, Leon, price find a bottom at 25.78 after breaching 38.24 undervalue zone for extreme bear market sentiments to be the pivot point of trend reversal. Since hitting 25.78 it rallied up to 77.41 points where the fair value zone is 76.48 resistance point and unable to trade above that zone for a couple of years till year 2018. Now last trading at 51.42 suggest it is a good time to enter VISTA theme market where it had seen a volatile market sell off in year 2018, Bullish sentiment will follow through in year 2019 and beyond where generally market sentiments are 90% bearish in nature because of USA China trade war issues, Strong US dollar performance and rising US treasury yields seen and forecast by most financial markets experts to hit 3.5% by year end 2018 and year 2019 to be the tipping point leading to a major financial crisis taking place.


iShares MSCI South Africa ETF 14 Dec 2018




















iShares MSCI South Africa ETF 14 Dec 2018 with Technical Analysis


















Above ETF chart Technical Analysis suggest mixture of bullish and bearish chart patterns, bullish chart patterns is observed an ascending triangle (huge) and price seen back test classical support line that connect all the peaks. Bearish chart pattern is observed to be rising wedge using green color line that connect all the peak and blue color uptrending line that connect all the trough which form a support.


Dow Jones South Africa Stock Index 14 Dec 2018



















Dow Jones South Africa Index 14 Dec 2018 with Technical Analysis



















Based on the charts, there is a mixture of bullish and bearish chart pattern,
bullish chart pattern is observed to be flag & pennant (horizontal flag) where price is seen currently trading in a range.between upper green color classical resistance line that connect all the peaks and purple color line classical support line that connect all the troughs.

Bearish chart pattern is observed to be ascending triangle green color uptrending line that connect all the higher low points is broken. a possible rounding rounding top chart formation emerged if recent and all time high of 2060.96 points seen in Jan 2018.





Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Thursday, 13 December 2018

Euro Dollar Chart Part 2

It has been 1 year since i last updated EURUSD chart, It is about time for me to provide an update whether EURUSD currency pair is still bullish or bearish on the backdrop of recessionary speculation, high and unsustainable sovereign debt of Euro bloc countries and European Central Bank (ECB) whether is tightening or loosening its monetary policy approach.

There is a recent update by ECB chief Mr. Mario Draghi, 10 hours ago publish by CNBC that ECB is embarking on a tightening of monetary policy. so how will ECB tightening affect the Euro, there is only one way upside because they have end the unorthodox of money printing quantitative easing (QE) to increase money supply (M2) to depreciate its currency, by limiting the money supply (M2) Euro will strengthen couple with the backdrop of a weakening dollar where DXY is trading at its peak now. should high and unsustainable sovereign debt of Euro Bloc countries diminish with the prospect of global economy growth engine reigniting will drive Euro to new highs not seen year 2016 where it reach its low of 1.03 (est).

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/13/ecb-meeting-crisis-era-stimulus-set-to-end-despite-growth-worries.html?fbclid=IwAR1Cr95Mxpk3SzXjq9vYXQwcJK7g4nMkd78d7gbE3IuGreZR8RNe07rNYYs


EURUSD Monthly Chart 










                                                                                                 










Recent EurUsd chart on 25 November suggest, a flag and pennant chart formation (huge bull flag) couple with price back test around 1.13 peak as support as illustrated by orange color line drawn. 2nd wave will be anticipated to rally to price target 1.34. 1.03 to 1.25 = 0.22 axis line plus recent low 1.12 = 1.34 (target).



Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Wednesday, 12 December 2018

VISTA Theme for year 2019 - Turkey ISE National 100 Index Chart Analysis

Turkey ISE National 100 Index is part of VISTA theme that has seen a sell off rout in year 2018 on the backdrop of rising US dollar, rising Treasury yields and emerging markets BRIC and VISTA had their currencies weakening, and stock indexes steep correction.

Emerging markets theme BRIC comprising Brazil, Russia, India and China while VISTA theme comprising Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Argentina.

Turkey part of VISTA is said to have maintain a high US dollar denominated debt.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-reasons-why-the-selloff-in-turkeys-lira-matters-to-global-markets-2018-08-10

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-lira-selloff-compares-to-turkeys-previous-crises-2018-08-14

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/13/turkey-lira-crisis-knocks-emerging-market-currencies-to-multi-year-low.html

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-says-attack-on-economy-no-different-from-attack-on-flag

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_currency_and_debt_crisis,_2018

https://www.google.com.sg/search?q=turkey+sell+off&rlz=1C1CHBF_enSG798SG799&oq=turkey+sell+off&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l2.5299j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8


With post G20 meeting hosted by Argentina concluded on 30 November to 1 December, it was a successful meeting between USA and China where they had implement trade war tariff truce for 90 days.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/a-look-at-what-happened-at-the-g-20-summit-in-argentina/ar-BBQo4La?li=AAgfIYZ

Let us take a look at the charts of VISTA theme attached is Turkey ISE National 100 Index.

We are still at 50th percentile of the bullish market which had many more years to go. Charts display bullish strength where Turkey ISE National 100 Index had seen a retracement correction after hitting 121,500 points high in January 2018.

Turkey despite maintain a high US dollar denominated debt, its stock market has a stellar performance instead of a under performance stock market under the leadership of President Erdogan. Turkey ISE National 100 Index is on an uptrending chart based on historical records till date.

With the recent emerging markets technical correction of over 20% enter into a technical bear market, lots of financial analyst expert are calling for a bear market to take place in year 2019.

Surprisingly, Turkey ISE National 100 Index is less affected by the recent US dollar strengthening and rising treasury yields for it is a weaker stock market index as compared to currency markets Lira had seen a huge selloff where Turkish ISA 100 National equity market should have been greatly affected by the selloff in Turkish Lira, the currency market for maintaining a high US dollar denominated debt.

Our of proportion VISTA theme markets comprising Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Argentina, 4 out of 5 are in a stronger uptrending stock market except South Africa. So are we going to see a financial crisis taking place soon?

Turkey ISE National 100 Index Monthly Chart Historical 7 Dec 2018


















Turkey ISE National 100 Index Monthly Chart Historical 7 Dec 2018 with Technical Analysis
Based on the charts, there is a mixture of bullish and bearish chart pattern,
bullish chart pattern includes ascending triangle, price is seen back testing the lower price channel orange color lines as support and the previous peak range between 71,800 points to 93,400 points as support, will it hold? flag & pennants horizontal flag completed price movement, may see a 2nd wave of horizontal flag breakout after consolidation (swing trade).

Bearish chart pattern include a possible double top M chart formation, rising wedge chart pattern refers to using purple color line connecting all the peaks couple with orange color support uptrending line or lower price channel line. A potential rounding top could emerge resulting in unable to break 121,500 points high seen in January 2018.






Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

VISTA Theme for year 2019 - Argentina Merval Index Chart Analysis

Argentina is part of VISTA theme that has seen a sell off rout in year 2018 on the backdrop of rising US dollar, rising Treasury yields and emerging markets BRIC and VISTA had their currencies weakening, and stock indexes steep correction.

Emerging markets theme BRIC comprising Brazil, Russia, India and China while VISTA theme comprising Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Argentina.

Argentina similar to Turkey part of VISTA is said to have maintain a high US dollar denominated debt.

https://www.businessinsider.com/emerging-markets-suffer-after-dollar-debt-binges-2018-8/?IR=T

https://www.ft.com/content/2bad9bbc-aca6-11e8-94bd-cba20d67390c

https://www.ig.com/sg/view-ig/argentina-the-latest-casualty-of-the-emerging-markets-sell-off-180910

https://qz.com/1274875/how-argentina-went-from-selling-100-year-bonds-to-an-imf-rescue-in-a-matter-of-months/


With post G20 meeting hosted by Argentina concluded on 30 November to 1 December, it was a successful meeting between USA and China where they had implement trade war tariff truce for 90 days.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/a-look-at-what-happened-at-the-g-20-summit-in-argentina/ar-BBQo4La?li=AAgfIYZ

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-22/highlights-from-the-g-20-summit-in-buenos-aires-this-weekend

Let us take a look at the charts of VISTA theme attached is Argentina Merval Index

We are still at 50th percentile of the bullish market which had many more years to go. Charts display bullish strength where Argentina Merval Index had seen a minor retracement correction after hitting 35,500 points high in January 2018.

Argentina despite maintain a high US dollar denominated debt, its stock market has a stellar performance instead of a under performance stock market under the leadership of President Macri who is anti populist economic policies, and introducing a series of pro market reforms. Argentina Merval Index is on an uptrending chart based on historical records till date.

With the recent emerging markets technical correction of over 20% enter into a technical bear market, lots of financial analyst expert are calling for a bear market to take place in year 2019.

Surprisingly, Argentina Merval Index is less affected by the recent US dollar strengthening and rising treasury yields for it is a weaker stock market index, currency markets peso where it should have been greatly affected like the Turkish ISA 100 National equity market and Turkish Lira for maintaining a high US dollar denominated debt.

Our of proportion VISTA theme markets comprising Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Argentina, 4 out of 5 are in a stronger uptrending stock market except South Africa. So are we going to see a financial crisis taking place soon?

Argentina Merval Index Monthly Chart Historical 7 Dec 2018

Argentina Merval Index Monthly Chart Historical 7 Dec 2018 with Technical Analysis
Based on the charts, there is a mixture of bullish and bearish chart pattern,
bullish chart pattern includes ascending triangle, price is seen back testing the upper price channel blue color lines as support, will it hold? flag & pennants horizontal flag completed price movement, may see a 3rd wave of horizontal flag breakout after consolidation (swing trade).

Bearish chart pattern include a possible double top M chart formation, rising wedge chart pattern refers to using upper price channel blue color lines and red color support uptrending line.


lets take a look of which country is the major trading partner of Argentina

https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/ARG/Year/LTST/TradeFlow/EXPIMP/Partner/by-country





Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Monday, 10 December 2018

VISTA Theme for year 2019 - Vietnam Index Chart Analysis

Vietnam is part of VISTA theme that has seen a sell off rout in year 2018 on the backdrop of rising US dollar, rising Treasury yields and emerging markets BRIC and VISTA had their currencies weakening, and stock indexes steep correction.

Emerging markets theme BRIC comprising Brazil, Russia, India and China while VISTA theme comprising Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Argentina.

Turkey part of VISTA is said to have maintain a high US dollar denominated debt.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-reasons-why-the-selloff-in-turkeys-lira-matters-to-global-markets-2018-08-10

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-lira-selloff-compares-to-turkeys-previous-crises-2018-08-14

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/13/turkey-lira-crisis-knocks-emerging-market-currencies-to-multi-year-low.html

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-says-attack-on-economy-no-different-from-attack-on-flag

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_currency_and_debt_crisis,_2018

https://www.google.com.sg/search?q=turkey+sell+off&rlz=1C1CHBF_enSG798SG799&oq=turkey+sell+off&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l2.5299j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8


With post G20 meeting hosted by Argentina concluded on 30 November to 1 December, it was a successful meeting between USA and China where they had implement trade war tariff truce for 90 days.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/a-look-at-what-happened-at-the-g-20-summit-in-argentina/ar-BBQo4La?li=AAgfIYZ

Let us take a look at the charts of VISTA theme attached is Vietnam Index

We are still at 50th percentile of the bullish market which had many more years to go. Charts display bullish strength where Vietnam Index had seen a retracement correction after hitting 1200 points high in January 2018.

Vietnam Index Monthly Chart Historical 7 Dec 2018



















Vietnam Index Monthly Chart Historical 7 Dec 2018 with Technical Analysis



















Above charts display bullish chart pattern, Vietnam index is seen back testing a down trending line blue in color connecting the peak and trough sum up a price channel chart formation. Orange color line is the median line of a price channel. Analyzing the formation of purple color line connecting the peak and the red color line connecting all the trough (support) is a bullish chart formation of ascending triangle.

Vietnam Index (Bloomberg) Monthly Chart Historical 7 Dec 2018


















Vietnam Index (Bloomberg) Monthly Chart Historical 7 Dec 2018


















VNindex chart display a mix of bullish chart formation symmetric triangle and bearish chart formation descending triangle. Will Vietnam Index break out of downtrending line in purple color and a new trend emerged for a swing setup. A potential W double bottom in the making with upside target of 1017 points 1st level resistance, 1211 points 2nd level resistance, 1600 points equal 900 + 700 points 3rd level resistance using simple mathematics formula to determine price.





Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

VISTA Theme for year 2019 - Indonesia Jarkata Composite Index Chart Analysis

Indonesia Jarkata Composite index (JCI) is part of VISTA theme that has seen a sell off rout in year 2018 on the backdrop of rising US dollar, rising Treasury yields and emerging markets BRIC and VISTA had their currencies weakening, and stock indexes steep correction.

Emerging markets theme BRIC comprising Brazil, Russia, India and China while VISTA theme comprising Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Argentina.

Turkey part of VISTA is said to have maintain a high US dollar denominated debt.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-reasons-why-the-selloff-in-turkeys-lira-matters-to-global-markets-2018-08-10

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-lira-selloff-compares-to-turkeys-previous-crises-2018-08-14

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/13/turkey-lira-crisis-knocks-emerging-market-currencies-to-multi-year-low.html

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-says-attack-on-economy-no-different-from-attack-on-flag

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_currency_and_debt_crisis,_2018

https://www.google.com.sg/search?q=turkey+sell+off&rlz=1C1CHBF_enSG798SG799&oq=turkey+sell+off&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l2.5299j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8


With post G20 meeting hosted by Argentina concluded on 30 November to 1 December, it was a successful meeting between USA and China where they had implement trade war tariff truce for 90 days.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/a-look-at-what-happened-at-the-g-20-summit-in-argentina/ar-BBQo4La?li=AAgfIYZ

Let us take a look at the charts of VISTA theme attached is Indonesia Jarkata Composite Index (JCI)

We are still at 50th percentile of the bullish market which had many more years to go. Charts display bullish strength where Jarkata Composite Index had seen a retracement correction after hitting 6693 high in January 2018.

Jarkata Composite Index Monthly Chart Historical 7 Dec 2018




















Jarkata Composite Index Monthly Chart Historical 7 Dec 2018 with Technical Analysis




















Above charts display bullish chart pattern a bullish flag & pennant (horizontal flag) with an upside target of 39 to 40 using the green color y axis line as the benchmark. low 5.34 to 30.28 high difference is 25 dollars, horizontal flag trough is estimated 14 dollars plus 25 equate to 39 dollars, simple mathematics formula to determine price.


Jarkata Composite Index Monthly Chart Historical 7 Dec 2018















Jarkata Composite Index Monthly Chart Historical 7 Dec 2018














JCI is seen moving in a price channel of black color lines connecting all the peaks & troughs with orange color line is the median centre line. It has back tested previous peak around 5450 points and form a support.





Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Tuesday, 20 November 2018

SGDHKD Chart Analysis Part 2

It is known that Hong Kong Dollar is pegged to US dollar.

I am dedicating this analysis to my fellow Singaporeans and my friends from Hong Kong.

I have updated the chart of SGDHKD chart for your reference whether you are a traveller or having a business in hong kong or a fellow trader and investor trading in Hang Seng Indices, stocks and currencies.

In the chart, a fan is observed with an array of chart formations, ranging from falling wedge to symmetric triangle to ascending triangle and a potential rounding bottom chart formation, further weakness is seen in the Hong Kong Dollar having the pegged relationship with US dollar.

Tourism Industry in Hong Kong is set to boost in the year 2019 having a weaker Hong Kong Dollar and residents of Hong Kong are going to feel inflationary pressure due to a weaker Hong Kong dollar importing and Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecast to increase dramatically.

With reference to the chart attached for SGDHKD currency pair, 6.25 is a resistance which is hard to break easily. There is an opportunity for swing trade setup to 6.25 target.

SGDHKD 10 Year Monthly Chart


















SGDHKD 10 Year Monthly Chart W Technical Analysis 




















Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Saturday, 10 November 2018

Shanghai Stock Index Analysis Part 2

There has been speculation of a bear market taking place and after Shanghai Stock Index hit 3587 points in 29 January 2018, it had been in a decline to recent low 2449 points in 19 October 2018, a whopping estimate 9 months of decline ever since longest correction or retracement ever, probably due to a few factors that drive the emerging market rout, to name a few.

Shanghai Stock Exchange recent weakness suggest low valuations may attract the global investor attention, offers attractive yields and opportunity to stay invested.

1) USD strength is at its peak, have limited upside price pressure at 96 to 97 price level of USD spot index.
2) US 10 year Treasury rising yields to recent high of 3.248% seen in 5 October 2018, reach 3 year high since July 2016 of all time low 1.321% and most financial analysts interviewed by Bloomberg and CNBC are projecting the rising yields to reach 3.5% by end of the year 2018.
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US10Y

Comparison Chart Between US Dollar and US 10 Year Treasury Yield














3) US Mid Term Elections in November 2018 that seen delay in negotiation between US & China to resolve Trade Tariffs differences.
4) Severity of Trade War tensions that seen global financial markets oversold and overblown.

However. there are a few positive market catalyst released so far that could drive the global financial markets into year end rally

1) US Mid Term Election is over where President Trump's republican party lose the House of Representative to Democrats Party, would probably see more gridlocks in policy making. may see negotiation to resolve trade tariffs dispute taking place soon.
2) Trade War tensions to ease dramatically, win-win scenario for both US & China.
3) MSCI: publish news on 6 November on the eve of US mid term elections to increase Chinese Shares weightage from 5% to 20% in year 2019 in its MSCI emerging market indexes. MSCI:中国内地股票权重提高至20%将吸引逾800亿美元, 国际知名指数公司MSCI明晟拟议中的到2019年将中国内地股票在其全球基准指数中的权重由5%提高至20%,可能会吸引逾800亿美元的新外国投资进入这个全球第二大经济体
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/26/msci-considers-increasing-chinese-share-weight-in-its-indexes.html?fbclid=IwAR3e4mNL1JKwm6HAqpxFLPj7HdBSyd-RCwJIz5cQ6Rat8G7TD9H1ccSpPMQ 



















4) Bear market headline splash all over international news media.
5) Shanghai Stock Index is trading at its support based on technical analysis.
6) Capricorn effect or known as January Barometer where between the months of October to January would see a positive gains, better months for equities stock market performance.
7) Yuan / Reminbi approaching USDCNH / USDCNY 7 dollars resistance.

Technical Analysis:

Shanghai Stock Exchange Index - 8 Nov 2018



















 Shanghai Stock Exchange Index - 8 Nov 2018 with Technical Analysis



















CSI 300 ETF - 8 November 2018 




















CSI 300 ETF - 8 November 2018 with Technical Analysis




















A50 ETF - 8 November 2018



















A50 ETF - 8 November 2018 with Technical Analysis



Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.