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Tuesday, 20 November 2018

SGDHKD Chart Analysis Part 2

It is known that Hong Kong Dollar is pegged to US dollar.

I am dedicating this analysis to my fellow Singaporeans and my friends from Hong Kong.

I have updated the chart of SGDHKD chart for your reference whether you are a traveller or having a business in hong kong or a fellow trader and investor trading in Hang Seng Indices, stocks and currencies.

In the chart, a fan is observed with an array of chart formations, ranging from falling wedge to symmetric triangle to ascending triangle and a potential rounding bottom chart formation, further weakness is seen in the Hong Kong Dollar having the pegged relationship with US dollar.

Tourism Industry in Hong Kong is set to boost in the year 2019 having a weaker Hong Kong Dollar and residents of Hong Kong are going to feel inflationary pressure due to a weaker Hong Kong dollar importing and Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecast to increase dramatically.

With reference to the chart attached for SGDHKD currency pair, 6.25 is a resistance which is hard to break easily. There is an opportunity for swing trade setup to 6.25 target.

SGDHKD 10 Year Monthly Chart


















SGDHKD 10 Year Monthly Chart W Technical Analysis 




















Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Saturday, 10 November 2018

Shanghai Stock Index Analysis Part 2

There has been speculation of a bear market taking place and after Shanghai Stock Index hit 3587 points in 29 January 2018, it had been in a decline to recent low 2449 points in 19 October 2018, a whopping estimate 9 months of decline ever since longest correction or retracement ever, probably due to a few factors that drive the emerging market rout, to name a few.

Shanghai Stock Exchange recent weakness suggest low valuations may attract the global investor attention, offers attractive yields and opportunity to stay invested.

1) USD strength is at its peak, have limited upside price pressure at 96 to 97 price level of USD spot index.
2) US 10 year Treasury rising yields to recent high of 3.248% seen in 5 October 2018, reach 3 year high since July 2016 of all time low 1.321% and most financial analysts interviewed by Bloomberg and CNBC are projecting the rising yields to reach 3.5% by end of the year 2018.
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US10Y

Comparison Chart Between US Dollar and US 10 Year Treasury Yield














3) US Mid Term Elections in November 2018 that seen delay in negotiation between US & China to resolve Trade Tariffs differences.
4) Severity of Trade War tensions that seen global financial markets oversold and overblown.

However. there are a few positive market catalyst released so far that could drive the global financial markets into year end rally

1) US Mid Term Election is over where President Trump's republican party lose the House of Representative to Democrats Party, would probably see more gridlocks in policy making. may see negotiation to resolve trade tariffs dispute taking place soon.
2) Trade War tensions to ease dramatically, win-win scenario for both US & China.
3) MSCI: publish news on 6 November on the eve of US mid term elections to increase Chinese Shares weightage from 5% to 20% in year 2019 in its MSCI emerging market indexes. MSCI:中国内地股票权重提高至20%将吸引逾800亿美元, 国际知名指数公司MSCI明晟拟议中的到2019年将中国内地股票在其全球基准指数中的权重由5%提高至20%,可能会吸引逾800亿美元的新外国投资进入这个全球第二大经济体
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/26/msci-considers-increasing-chinese-share-weight-in-its-indexes.html?fbclid=IwAR3e4mNL1JKwm6HAqpxFLPj7HdBSyd-RCwJIz5cQ6Rat8G7TD9H1ccSpPMQ 



















4) Bear market headline splash all over international news media.
5) Shanghai Stock Index is trading at its support based on technical analysis.
6) Capricorn effect or known as January Barometer where between the months of October to January would see a positive gains, better months for equities stock market performance.
7) Yuan / Reminbi approaching USDCNH / USDCNY 7 dollars resistance.

Technical Analysis:

Shanghai Stock Exchange Index - 8 Nov 2018



















 Shanghai Stock Exchange Index - 8 Nov 2018 with Technical Analysis



















CSI 300 ETF - 8 November 2018 




















CSI 300 ETF - 8 November 2018 with Technical Analysis




















A50 ETF - 8 November 2018



















A50 ETF - 8 November 2018 with Technical Analysis



Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Wednesday, 7 November 2018

India Sensex Index Analysis

I have not cover Indian Stock Index and now I dedicate an outlook into Sensex to my Indian readers, a look into one of the emerging market BRICs - India Sensex Market.

One of the Technical Analysis experts Mr. Donovan Ang suggest that we are in the expansionary phase of the bull run currently in the 50 percentile of the bull market which will see the bull market ends sometime plus minus 2028, a whopping of 10 years.

A key takeaway of recent US Mid Term Elections where the republicans lose house of representatives to the democrats which we as the traders and investors may see a repeat of the fiscal cliff happened in the ex President Obama's Administration where parliamentary gridlocks of opposing bills result in government shutdowns. Will these events unfold into year 2019 & beyond derailed the bull market or it will be a slow bull which is going to last into year 2028 where there are many walls of worry along the way.

Maecro Economic Environment Outlook

A look into Baltic Dry Index (BDI), Dr. Copper and Crude Oil (WTI) charts suggest global economy is on the expansionary phase where there commodities seen rising prices due to high demand. An economy which is e-revolution, triple Es - Electronics, Electrical and Engineering that drives the new modern economy, see an influx of new E-products from bitcoin mining rigs use to mine bitcoins, Electric vehicle reduce the consumption of crude oil (fossil fuel), Electric Scooters and Bikes, use of robotics to enhance productivity in the service industries. All these consume high amount of electricity.

How does the utilities provider able to provide seamless delivery of electricity to the end consumers by not experiencing disruptions using only source of energy or is going to employ an array of hybrid source of energy ranging from Crude Oil (fossil fuel), renewable energy like wind mills, solar and turbine.

Sensex Monthly Chart 


Sensex Monthly Chart with Technical Analysis

we see Sensex is trading in a range of 39000 recent high of 21000 in year 2008 and 2011 and 22000 of year 2015 low. Sensex is sitting on a support of 30000 after retracement from 39000 recent high.

Sensex is projected that 50000 is the psychological resistance and resistance at 58000 is 2 times of peak 21200 + 7697 low computed and using 58000 X 1.20 = 69000 overvalue resistance for Sensex during the final phase of bull run.



Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.




Monday, 5 November 2018

US Mid Term Election - 6 Nov 2018

It is observed that the US Mid Term Election would bring lots of volatility to the financial markets.
Generally, I would not see a massive correction taking place after US mid term elections for we are in a Capricorn effect leading into year end where history suggest between months of October to January is positive for equities and financial markets.

Currently it is observed that the financial markets has priced in a democrats win on the house of representative with USD strengthening, and the eve of US mid term election where global financial markets see a mixture of geographic location stock exchanges register positive and negative performance.

BBC polls on US mid term elections suggest that democrats are poised to win on the house of representative. Coincidentally that performance of USD is strengthening as a result and is pegged to a democrats win and vice versa of USD performance is pegged to a Republican win.

Gold would see a repeat of US presidential election in Nov 2016, a big move should USD is weakening with a Republican win.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44314914