Simple Effective Techniques of Mastering Trading Forex Asset Class

 Dear Readers,

I am going to share a simple effective techniques of Trading Forex. There are a few pointers you need to understand as a novice in forex trading where trading in forex asset class is different from stocks / equities. 

Important Pointers:

1) Swap interest - an interest payable or receivable by the trader for taking a long or short positions. Swap interest will actually affects your trade profits over a period of time holding on to the long or short positions, a trader is undertaking.

2) Forex is a trillion dollar marketplace as compare to stocks / equities billion dollar marketplace so it makes forex trading pretty violatile, liquidity marketplace 24/7 trading environment except on saturday and sunday.

3) Using correct timeframe charts for analysis and taking a long short positions. By using 1 hour timeframe is equilvalent to a Daily timeframe for trading stocks, 24 X 1 hour tading in forex is equivalent to 20 tradings days in a month, 4 hour timeframe is equilvalent to a Weekly timeframe for trading stocks, 6 X 4 hours in a day in trading forex is equivalent to 5 days trading in a week. 

My preferred timeframe for Technical Analysis is using 1 hour and 4 hour timeframe to analyze the general maecro direction of the FX pair couple with Relative Strength Indicator (RSI 70 Overbought, 30 Oversold), if 1 hour and 4 hours chart timeframe couple with RSI oversold indicator is the time for my entry into a trade simple yet effective.

4) Should traders be observant enough, last 15 min into an hour trading is where the big moves comes in, there is no explaination why usually last 15 mins into an hour trading is very important to catch big moves upside or downside. 

5) Strategic Geographical Timing in trading specific commodities currencies like XAUUSD (Gold) XAGUSD (Silver), because the global financials market is operated in an intertwined globalised world, the world nevers sleeps 24/7. There are certain lull and dull trading hours to avoid and vibrant trading hours to participate, consider trading in forex which a trader is observant enough, no need to glue to the trading desk 24/7 to trade profitably. Asian markets trading hours (7am to 5pm, GMT +08:00), European trading hours (1pm to 11pm, GMT +08:00) Wall Street trading hours are (10.30pm to 5.30am, GMT+08:00)

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/what-time-does-the-stock-market-open-14696671#:~:text=Japan's%20Tokyo%20Stock%20Exchange%20(TSE,00%20a.m.%2D4%3A30%20p.m.

On Fundamental Analysis (FA): 

A trader has to understand and chart USD which is currently a global reserve currency where most commodities raw materials are priced in and for trade settlement. I would observed the DXY spot for basket in USD as the benchmark for trading other currencies against the greenback. USD weakens, the other currencies strengthen and vice-versa, should USD strengthen, the other currencies weaken often having an inverse-relationship with other currencies pair. 

On Technical Analysis (TA):

A trader has to use correct timeframe (1 hour and 4 hours) couple with the RSI indicator to analyse and observe any bullish or bearish chart patterns. 

On Fund Flow Analysis (FFA):

A Trader has to know where and how to extract the available fund flow analysis of the FX pair which i can't share any details on this critical link where this is my trade secrets.

Specialised Tools: 

I have another special indicator to rely on picking the profitable trading FX pair which is to use a programming excel sheets to extract heatmap details on the current stengthening and weakening FX pair to increase my profit probabliity to 80%.

I hope that my readers will benefit from my knowledge trading in FX pair will help you to profit and gasp the general maecro direction that a trader is needed to know and understand.

Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Gold Chart Analysis - Gold Has Hit All Time High Since Year 2011, What's Next For Gold?

Dear Readers,

I would like to share my personal opinion on Gold which has hit all time high since year 2011, and what's next for gold after historic milestone?

Gold price rise is far from over and may reach another milestone in the next few years. reason being there are a few fundamental reason supporting my view.

Firstly, due to covid 19 outbreak global central banks had undertaken massive liquidity injection into the capital markets through monetary policy, quantitative easing (QE) where money supply M2 is increasing at an alarming rate. This monetary policy tool will cause hyperinflation across asset prices through devaluing of US dollar. Through QE measures and by lowering interest rates to near zero percent, Federal Reserve, central bank provides confidence in the financial market, avoid liquidty crunch where business and corporations are accessing to available credit to avoid insolvency.

Secondly, Gold is supported by a large trend of weakening US dollar which is devalue due to QE and lowering of interest rate, where gold usually have an inverse relationship with the US dollar and it seems now that it is perfectly in sync in this amazing relationship where gold may have more upside to go. As well-known Legendary investor, Jim Rogers said that the commodities bull market usually will last 20 to 23 years, so in fact the commodities bull market had start from year 2000 driven by China consumption.

US Dollar Technical Charts

Observations from US Dollar chart daily timeframe, there should be a technical rebound to price level 95 where it is previously a support turn resistance, based on fund flows analysis there should be another downside wave down to 80 level.

Thirdly, gold is also a safe haven asset to position for any crisis like covid 19 outbreak, wars, geopolitical tensions, trade war, currency war, foreign policy war to name a few or probably a shut down of congress due to budget deficit ceiling issue. Through the next few years i observe quite a few hotspot issue relating to geopolitical tensions which may result in an escalation into war. 

Fourth, year 2021 is a Ox year with Metal Element and in Chinese Feng Shui context, it bode well for the financial markets to perform extremely well, fantastic bull run.

to name a few geopolitical tension which may arise as a result,

1) China Taiwan conflict on one underlying island called Changsha which has a strategic advantage over the south china sea maritime route.

2) China US conflict over south china sea

3) Turkey Syria Libya geopolitical tensions may erupt.

https://english.alaraby.co.uk/english/indepth/2020/5/26/france-and-turkeys-growing-rivalry-in-the-middle-east

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Turkeys-Latest-Geopolitical-Gamble-Could-Result-In-Catastrophe.html

4) Isreal Lebanon conflict

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-row-over-trees-could-spark-the-next-israel-lebanon-war-11593345635

5) US Iran conflict

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/02/us-iran-military-hotline-covid-19-pandemic

6) North Korea South Korea conflict

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/N-Korea-at-crossroads/North-and-South-Korea-border-tensions-Seven-things-to-know

A peek into Technical Chart Analysis of Gold to determine future price fluctuations.

Gold Technical Charts

Observations from Gold Future chart monthly timeframe, there should be a technical pullback to price level 1600 where it is previously a resistance turn support, based on fund flows analysis there should be another upside wave up to 2800 (technical) to 3000 (psychological resistance) level, using the depth of the big rounding bottom to forecast future price direction. Should price of gold retest 1600 support level and rebound it will form a cup and handle chart pattern for more upside. 

Gold price has hit 2005 price level as i wrote this article.

To time my re-entry for gold take price 2005 x 0.85 (15%) safety discount margin mechanism as a guide which is computed as 1704, below 1704 looks attractive to enter but i prefer 1600 price level for safe entry as it is near to critical neckline support level.

May the force be with you, to prosper and stay safe and healthy in the face of covid 19 yet over.

Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Bursa (1818)

Dear Readers of my Blog,

Bursa has come to my attention that it had rallied almost 100% from recent covid 19 low at price level 4.32 myr on 19 March 2020.

Bursa has display a parabolic signs and an imminent correction is about to take place usually 15%, 20% or 25% from high. The price computed is 7.2675 (15%), 6.84 (20%) and 6.41 (25%). Bursa has rallied to 8.55 recent high from covid 19, 19 march low of 4.32 which is computed as 98%.

Currently, we are in a unloved bull market and technical analysis charting on Bursa seem to suggest for an uptrend to be intact and validated, it must experience price swings, so it is observed that Bursa has not seem a valid correction with a parabolic price movement impulsive wave, in the worst case scenario it may see price level 4.32 retest again impulsive wave down but the probability is low, refer to Fund Flow analysis of worldwide financial markets to cross reference.




Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Has The Financial Markets Bottom?

In this Topic, i would like to discuss have we seen the bottom for the financial markets after a carnage rout of selloff from equities to commodities.

In times of crisis there is a mad rush to US dollar as a safe haven which i notice is unsustainable

1) Fundamental Anaylsis - Bearish due to Federal Reserve are cutting interest to Zero and unleash a round of unlimited asset purchases on 23 March 2020

2) Technical Analysis -  Bearish

3) Fund Flow Analysis - Bearish

i notice that worldwide financial market indices has rebound from the low, admist by many global central bankers undertake an easing monetary policy to cut interest rate, and fiscal policy is passed to stimulate the ailing economy impacted by covid19 outbreak.

By fund flow analysis, the financial market is not position for a total meltdown (a full blown recession) with 50% (1st wave) capitulation follow by a (2nd wave) capitulation of 50% in asset prices.

The recent global financial market indices drop between the range of 25% to 40% should seen a bottom and poised for V shape or U shape reovery. I triangulate with the following observations with technical analysis of Violatility Index (Vix fiutures), Baltic Dry Index (BDI), Copper and Crude Oil WTI analysis.

The following Baltic Dry Index which measures the seafreight activities across the globe, Copper a precious commodity used in good conductor of heat and electricity, and Crude oil a fossil fuel used to power vehicles, generators and power plants a source for energy, its performance of late are greatly affected by covid19 stroke less demand with cities shutdown or lockdown limiting social and economic activities. Crude oil Wti price drop was due to a failed negotiation of OPEC plus to cut production engaging in price wars couple with China lockdown of citites due to covid 19 stroke less demand from the 2nd largest economies that dampen globlal economic growth. China is unique which is a global value supply chain supplier and a multiplier of domestic consumption of aggregate demand.

1) Violatility Index has break all time high set in year 2008-2009 subprime mortgage crisis of above 70 price level to reach a new high of 80 with the covid19 outbreak,

2) Baltic Dry Index has reach recent low of 415 on 7 Feb 2020 but had not broke all time low register at 291 in 12 February 2016.

3) Crude Oil Wti an unusual meltdown, global demand lesser impact by Covid 19 and engage in price war result in failed OPEC plus production cut aim to cripple American Shale Oil industry. my personal view is at price level 20 would be supported and found a floor to establish a bottom, reason being American Shale Oil industry has plunge almost 90% in value like Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG) is one very clear example of deep Crude Oil WTi  price rout casualty in intensive care unit (ICU). There are 4 possibility scenario pan out to see crude oil reverse into a bullish trend, firstly, president trump intervene into the production cut dispute arising between Saudi Arabia & Russia which he has act as the intermediary causing crude oil to spike 45% to price level 29 last friday 3 April 2020 into end of trading hours. secondly President Trump may remove economic sanction on Russia which will accomodate production cut, thirdly will US enter into a militarily conflict with Iran which of late Iran has launch an offensive on US military base in iraq occuring multiple attempts frequency. fourth with covid 19 situation in China is improving seeing less or no new cases reported, and there are reports that China cities are lifting the lockdown on 8 April 2020, clearly China factories have resuming their manufacturing activity and capability working 24/7 producing N95 masks, ventilators and supplying other medical supplies at alarming speed. In the process China being the second largest economies of the world are in a unique position now where others parts of the world are in a lockdown stage limiting social and economic activity and shutting down factories stop producing, whereas China has lift lockdown therefore consuming more demand of fossil fuel and renewable energy to power up generators, vehicles and power plants  as the factories are resuming work 24/7 a day to keep up with the global demand. Will China leads the global economies out of the woods again as it did in year 2008 - 2009 great financial crisis into a spectacular V shape recovery.

Diamondback Energy chart

4) Copper which is a commodity widely use in industrial demand and is a good conductor of heat and electricity also know as Dr. Copper as the demand increases in a recovering and growing economies. Technical Analysis shows Copper futures are in a sweet spot for a double bottom formation, and price is expected to recover in a big rectangle range with upper band blue color line as resistance and lower band blue color line as support.

Major global indices have plunge 25% to 40% from its recent high or all time high for instance

1) Dow Jones 29568 (all time high) has corrected more than 38.40% to recent low 18213 level (-11355 points). it is way oversold and undervalue as it enter into an extremely oversold technical correction of over 20%. First Target 25000 point level, Second Target 28000 points level and Third Target 31000 points level.

2) S&P 500 3393 (all time high) has corrected more than 35.42% to recent low 2191 level (-1202 points). it is way oversold and undervalue as it enter into an extremely oversold technical correction of over 20%. First Target 3000 points level, Second Target 3300 points level, Third Target 3600 points level.

3) Nasdaq 9838 (all time high) has corrected more than 32.59% to recent low 6631 level (-3207 points). it is way oversold and undervalue as it enter into an extremely oversold technical correction of over 20%. First Target 8200 points level , Second Target 9000 points level and Third Target 10000 points level.

4) Straits Time Index (STI) June 2018 high 3641 has corrected more than 39.35% to recent low 2208 level (-1433 points). It is way oversold and undervalue as it enter into an extremely oversold technical correction of over 20%. First Target 3000 points level, Second Target 3300 points level, Third Target 3600 points level and finally 4050 points level to break all time high set in year 2007 at 3906 points level.

5) Shanghai Composite Index Jan 2018 high 3587 has corrected more than 26.23% to recent low 2646 (-947 points), it is undervalue as it enter into an oversold technical correction of over 20% somemore it is at the epicentre of the covid19 outbreak and has since situation fast improving and recovering. First Target 3000 points level, Second Target 3300 points level, Third Target 3600 points level, Fourth Target 3900 points level, Fifth Target is 5000 points level and beyond.

6) Hang Seng Jan 2018 high 33484 has corrected more than 36.86% to recent low 21139 (-12345 points), it is way oversold and undervalue as it enter into an extremely oversold technical correction of over 20%, First Target 25000 points level, Second Target 30000 points level, Third Target 35000 points level

7) FTSE 100 May 2018 high 7903 has corrected more than 38.02% to recent low 4898 (-3005 points), it is way oversold and undervalue as it enter into an extremely oversold technical correction of over 20%, First Target 5700 points level, Second Target 6700 points level, Third Target 8000 points level and Fourth Target is 10000 points level

In conclusion, financial markets is always the forward leading indicator not a lagging indicator which the financial market is the window, engine front cabin of a train to the actual economy performance whether it is growing or contracting. if the financial markets has found a bottom and it should mean the global economy should be recovering from the worst situation of the crisis.



Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

DBS Bank Ltd Technical Analysis

Today Financial Market experience a blood bath, STI dropped 188 points as I am writing. STI open 2891 and last traded at 2772 low of the day.

DBS is 14.9% weightage of STI index component index and all 3 banks listed in singapore account for 35.7% weightage of STI Index components.

STI component constituents - Weightage as of March 2020

https://sginvestors.io/analysts/sti-straits-times-index-constituents-target-price


Source from Wikipedia explains why DBS is also the largest bank in South East Asia by assets and amongst the larger bank in Asia that explains why Singapore is the 2nd or 3rd or even 4th world most important financial center in the world. Hence Financial Services industry is probably the largest contributor of Singapore GDP growth.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DBS_Bank

DBS was named world best bank by Euromoney magazine

https://www.dbs.com/newsroom/DBS_named_Worlds_Best_Bank_by_Euromoney_magazine

http://www.theasianbanker.com/ab500/2018-2019/largest-banks-asia-pacific

https://www.businessinsider.sg/dbs-uob-and-ocbc-shoot-up-ranking-of-worlds-500-most-valuable-brands-with-one-bank-rising-128-spots-from-last-year

Lets look at the technical Chart of DBS.

DBS Monthly Chart 6.3.20

DBS Monthly Chart 11.12.20

I always adopt contrarian style different from the herds instinct when it comes to trading and investment.

I am not fearful but excited when everyone else is fearful and in extreme fear right now, as i am writing Violatitliy Index (VIX) hit day high 53.15 where psychology resistance 50 breaks, implying we are in extreme fear right now. DBS is currently trading at undervalue ripe for bargain hunting.

On 9 March 2020, DBS open 21.22, day low 20.03 and last close at 20.13. DBS is setup for swing trade right now with target of 32 in sight. Feb 2016 low was 10.29 and reached price level of 26.54 high in May 2018, there is a difference of 16.25. using the difference 16.25 + day low on 23 March 2020 15.84 compute as 32.09 price target for the swing trade.





Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Crude Oil WTi Chart Analysis - Part 2

As a Trader or Investor, we must adopt a contrarian strategy avoiding overcrowding, overbought, overvalue and overhype of an asset class financial instruments products.

There are so many bearish newsfeed on Crude Oil at the moment.

Recently i came across a news re-published from The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) by author Amrith Ramkumar on Crude Oil WTI that it had enter into a bear market with this headlines - Concerns about an international slowdown, coupled with swelling supplies, send crude on a six-week skid
"U.S. Crude Oil Enters Bear Market Due to Global-Growth Fears"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-on-track-for-bear-market-due-to-global-growth-fears-11559748511?fbclid=IwAR2PJJv_J5ob6EL2d8uQBxH7PjVSnNI2ait6Ylevq1p5doDjHzosg6d6-PQ

Bloomberg published an article on Crude Oil WTi on 1 March 2020 that "A $30 Oil Price is the real virus threat to OPEC"

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-01/a-30-oil-price-is-the-real-virus-threat-to-opec?fbclid=IwAR1kAsZc-q0HlV_b_6vCPJeGZOBcRF3b-odLp0_J4hZWwaTJlZ32vOYjB40


"Will we really see Negative oil demand growth this year" on 4 March 2020

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Will-We-Really-See-Negative-Oil-Demand-Growth-This-Year.html

"Goldman Sachs : Brent Oil Could drop to $45 in April" on 4 March 2020

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Goldman-Sachs-Brent-Oil-Could-Drop-To-45-In-April.html

"Coronavirus Panic is causing a worst case scenario for Oil" on 28 February 2020

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Coronavirus-Panic-Is-Causing-A-Worst-Case-Scenario-For-Oil.html

"Oil Prices in freefall as Pandemic fears grow" on 27 Februrary 2020

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-In-Freefall-As-Pandemic-Fears-Grow.html

I use this piece of article to cross reference with the Weekly Chart Technical Analysis of Crude Oil WTi and i found that this piece of news come at the right time to accumulate long positions because the price is at the lower band of the price channel low poised for a rebound technical rally. Many traders or investors would be psychology affected by this negative news published and may take a short position on Crude Oil WTi.

I understand media always like to overhype an issue of greed and fear, a famous quote by Warren Buffet be greedy when everyone are fearful and be fearful when everyone are greedy" This quote by reowned investor Warren Buffet is not easily applicable if one lacks understanding on psychology part of the trading or investing journey.

In this article how it derive Crude Oil WTi had enter a bear market so called technical bear is using April 2018 high with a drop of more than 20% which is around 76 estimated at the time dropped to 43 recent low on 2 March 2020.

The formula is computed by using 76 X 0.2 = 60 price and below is consider a technical bear market, My concern is why it was re-published at this time and i happened to pick up this piece of newsfeed initially published in 5 June 2019, if we did not look at the dates published carefully thought it is the most recent and up to date publications with the Headlines.

Weekly Chart With Technical Analysis

Base on Technicals, Crude Oil WTi is trading at undervalue range of lower band of price channel. Lower Band of price channel makes a nice support for Crude Oil to stage a rebound to 60 (medium band of price channel) and 80 at the upper band of the price channel once Coronavirus situation improves.

It is surprising that Crude Oil did not rally based on geopolitical latest conflict between Turkey and Syria and Coronavirus overshadow the Turky and Syria geopolitical conflict.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/world/europe/putin-erdogan-syria.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/world/middleeast/russia-turkey-syria-war-strikes.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article





Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Clarence Yo - Google Translate Tutorial

Dr. Copper Chart Analysis Part 2

I am updating the trend for Dr. Copper which is the pulse of the maecro economy.

I came across this article below published by Author Clive Maund on Kitco, that Dr.Copper, Crude Oil WTI, Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and China A50 index weakness would result in continue to call for Market crash soon.

I decide to chart Dr. Copper to analyse the current trends of Dr. Copper Price, My conclusion is we are still in a long term bull market will not enter any recession caused by Covid 19 - Coronavirus which will cause temporary economic activity strain on global economies where Industries like, shipping, logistics, retail & food & beverage, tourism, transportation are badly affected by 'fear". Consumer afraid of contracting coronavirus avoid large congregation of human traffic, Global supply chain are badly hit short term due to China cities are in a lockdown restricting human flow to stem contagion of coronavirus from spreading, Hence Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has clearly reflected in its current index fluctuations, BDI reached 2518 points in 4 September 2019 has seen crashed all the way down to 411 points in 10 February 2020. Phase 1 trade deal was signed on 15 January 2020

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox/whats-in-the-u-s-china-phase-1-trade-deal-idUSKBN1ZE2IF

https://www.facebook.com/598617065/posts/10157134631957066/?d=n

Monthly Chart 

Monthly Chart - Technical Analysis

Dr. Copper Technical Chart Analysis was observed price of futures is consolidating in a price channel trend line supported by classical neckline resistance turn support.

Dr. Copper price is going to reverse its downward trend at the moment with most mainstream media overhype the fear of financial markets about to collapse with the outbreak of Black Swan Coronavirus which has an impact on the growth of second largest economy, China. The current PMI reading register a reading of 40.3

From Technicals perspective, swing trade setup for Dr. Copper with a price target of 4 USD price level in anticipation.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/29/china-pmi-factory-activity-shrank-at-fastest-rate-on-record-in-february.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/china-economy-caixinmarkit-february-manufacturing-pmi-amid-coronavirus.html




Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Coronavirus outbreak

Recently due to Coronavirus outbreak for the past month, There are many panic selling in the financial markets shed in terms of points and percentage.

1) STI - High 3285 Low 3112 = 173 points correction (5.26%)
2) Shanghai Composite Index - High 3127 Low 2685 = 442 points correction, Epicenter of Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak (14.13%)
3) Hang Seng Index - High 29149 Low 26145 = 3004 points correction (10.30%)
4) Dow Jone Composite Index - High 29373 Low 28177 = 1196 points correction (4.07%) 


SARs outbreak in Nov 2002 

1) STI - High 1485 Low 1205 = 280 points correction (18.85%)
2) Shanghai Composite Index - High 1573 Low 1311 = 262 points correction, Epicenter of Guangdong Province SARs Outbreak (16.65%)
3) Hang Seng Index - High 10246 Low 8331 = 1915 points correction (18.69%)
4) Dow Jone Composite Index - High 9043 Low 7416 = 1627 points correction (17.99%)

How do we assess the severity and impact by comparing SARs and Coronavirus?

Why do i think that the outbreak of Coronavirus is a short lived event which will likely end and see an improvement by end of April 2020. .

Firstly we observed the stock market indicator comparing outbreak of SARs and Coronavirus, 

STI being the orderly and true litmus indicator of world Financial Markets, stock market historical data is analyse between the SARs and Coronavirus outbreak the STI drop 280 (18.85%) during year 2002 SARs outbreak as compared to STI drop 173 (5.26%) points during Coronavirus outbreak, financial markets is always a forward indicator and not lagging indicator where market participants anticipate that Coronavirus would be a short lived event.

STI Historical Chart

Coronavirus outbreak - STI Chart

.
SARs outbreak - STI Chart

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/asian-markets-rebound-hopes-limited-virus-impact-042422742.html

Secondly we observe and analyze the lethality and mortality rate where you can find the information source on the link below.

The Lethality and mortality rate of SARs is computed at 9.65% with 8069 infected case and numbers of death is 779 as compared to Coronavirus at current statistics indicate  75698 infected case and numbers of death is 2124 is computed at 2.81%.

https://thewuhanvirus.com/?fbclid=IwAR0s9xEKZb358GD4hRwsuO2_gyZjnr0VQwX9BCnjjWP8GnbUhmyWML_dXE0


Thirdly as illustrated by President Trump's speech on why Coronavirus will go away in April, where medical professional experts who view Coronavirus is a coomon cold or Flu bug which tend to be associated with seasonal factor and most Virus would not be able to withstand the warm and heated temperature to survive in a well ventilated and open area, hence not easily transmitted unless there is a very close proximity human to human interaction. 

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/02/will-the-new-coronavirus-go-away-in-april/

Fourth China has undertaken drastic measure on the containment  by locking down its province effectively restricting all movement by air, land and sea, for its population of 50 million residents, urge residents to stay at home quarantine themselves for safety purpose. 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/china-wuhan-coronavirus-lockdown-cities-working-quarantine-effe-12400400

Fifth vaccine are developed and approved to use for treatment and it should see more recovery cases happening.

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/china-approves-favilavir-covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR1af34TLH8-21883qT3ktQppYQlzyy6cVyY5BSv_wjt_9f3kzhyj8amM-o

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/coronavirus-china-asks-recovered-patients-to-donate-blood-for-plasma-treatment?fbclid=IwAR0UjgssAyYxiFeQql_XJ1kNRkd98pF9Irqx2Y1wVKBUOrC-5X-g9Zf9DPA

I feel compelling to write about the word "Panic".

Panic can be define as 

1) sudden uncontrollable fear or anxiety, often causing wildly unthinking behaviour.
2) a state of widespread financial alarm provoking hasty action..
3) a frenzied hurry to do something.

There are panic buying of grocery items like Toilet paper, Maggie Mee, Rice, Mask, Hand Sanitizers and condoms in Singapore an unusual panic behaviour exhibited when Singapore raised crisis alert to DORSCON Orange alert. 

https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/risk-assessment-raised-to-dorscon-orange.

Usually when there is a crisis equals to opportunity happened in the financial markets where Coronavirus caused a selloff in the stock markets. I understand the panic short selling behaviour of the market participants react due to fear of a sharp selloff which triggers a technical recession when stock indices plunge more than 20% and the global economies enter into a prolong recession. 

Due to Coronavirus indutries, many industries like tourism, transportation and retail food and beverage establishment are badly affected and dwindling sales volume which forced people to stay indoors to avoid getting infected with Coronavirus.

Lastly, I would like to acknowledge the sacrifice of the healthcare professionals made with their lives on edge. 

i wish everyone to stay calm and dont panic, panic does not help with the situation from improving. stay Safe and observant to take opportunity when it comes for bargain hunting. 

SPDR GLD ETF - Part 2

This is my first post for year 2020. Let's head off to a great start of the year and end with a bang.

My recent re-entry into SPDR GLD ETF listed in Singapore Exchange (SGX) on 2 December 2019 was timing with precision, Based on Technical Analysis (TA) and Fund Flow Analysis, i decided to take a long position sense that something was about to happen which caused Gold price to stage a rally and there was a geopolitical conflict between USA and Iran which happened on the 3 January 2020 caught many by surprise, where USA lauched a drone missile assassination on late Iran general Qassem Soleimani, followed by Iran launch an offensive retaliatory missile on USA airbase in Iraq Baghdad with no fatalities reported on 8 January 2020. It all started with an American civilian contractor was killed in a rocket attack in USA military base in iraq on 27 December 2019 followed by an attack on USA embassy in Baghdad.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/iran-quds-force-leader-vows-manly-revenge-soleimani-200120144819073.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/27/us/politics/american-rocket-attack-iraq.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_the_United_States_embassy_in_Baghdad

Monthly Chart With Technical Analysis - 13 November 2019

From the technical charts perspective, it is observed after reaching 150 USD price level, price has retraced to the low of 136 USD price level which is a 9.3% correction from recent high, the classical  neckline resistance turn support level is 132 to 135 USD price for accumulation. The price gap down has been filled after 6 years in 2019 since April 2013 saw week 8 to 12 with low 150.50 and week 15 to 19 with high 145. The price gap down is a resistance for Trader investor to take note and to profit taking their positions for re-entry again preferably in the range of 10% to 15% retracement in a healthy bull market environment. Currently swing trade setup is observed with a price target range of 165 USD to 175 USD price level before challenging all time high of 187 USD price level set in Oct 2011. Currently we are still in a bull market phase since year 2009 with year 2020 theme of investment for Commodities. US dollar is still trading at the peak hence downside pressure price level is anticipated accelerating Commodity Gold price rally in the coming years, having an inverse relationship.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-01-21/why-goldman-sachs-s-currie-is-bullish-on-commodities-in-2020-video

Gold Futures Monthly Chart 20.01.20

To take a position in Gold, one can consider various financial instruments to suit you risk appetite and risk rewards ratio objective. Trader can Trade physical gold bar bullion (1Kg), or trade gold currency XAUUSD or trade SPDR GLD 10USD Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) listed in Singapore Exchange or gold mining company 

Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is define as "an investment fund traded on stock exchanges, much like stocks. An ETF holds assets such as stocks, commodities, or bonds and generally operates with an arbitrage mechanism designed to keep it trading close to its net asset value, although deviations can occasionally occur. Most ETFs track an index, such as a stock index or bond index. ETFs may be attractive as investments because of their low costs, tax efficiency, and stock-like features.<sup>"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange-traded_fund</sup>

ETF can be considered as a mutual fund listed as securities in a stock exchange with lesser violatility where stock exchange operating hours are 9am to 5pm whereas in a Forex or Commodities Futures markets, it is operating 24/7 5 days a week with increased violatility.

Finally, i closed my SPDR Gold ETF with a profit before the meltdown Sorry for the late update due to extremely busy lately over the covid-19. The reason i closed my long gold etf position was due to overhype and i felt extremely uncomfortable.

Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.