VISTA Theme for year 2019 - South Africa Index Chart Analysis

Ishares MSCI South Africa Index is part of VISTA theme that has seen a sell off rout in year 2018 on the backdrop of rising US dollar, rising Treasury yields and emerging markets BRIC and VISTA had their currencies weakening, and stock indexes steep correction.

Emerging markets theme BRIC comprising Brazil, Russia, India and China while VISTA theme comprising Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Argentina.

Turkey part of VISTA is said to have maintain a high US dollar denominated debt.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-reasons-why-the-selloff-in-turkeys-lira-matters-to-global-markets-2018-08-10

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-lira-selloff-compares-to-turkeys-previous-crises-2018-08-14

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/13/turkey-lira-crisis-knocks-emerging-market-currencies-to-multi-year-low.html

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-says-attack-on-economy-no-different-from-attack-on-flag

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_currency_and_debt_crisis,_2018

https://www.google.com.sg/search?q=turkey+sell+off&rlz=1C1CHBF_enSG798SG799&oq=turkey+sell+off&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l2.5299j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8


With post G20 meeting hosted by Argentina concluded on 30 November to 1 December, it was a successful meeting between USA and China where they had implement trade war tariff truce for 90 days.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/a-look-at-what-happened-at-the-g-20-summit-in-argentina/ar-BBQo4La?li=AAgfIYZ

Let us take a look at the charts of VISTA theme attached is iShares MSCI South Africa Index.

We are still at 50th percentile of the bullish market which had many more years to go. Charts display bullish strength where iShares MSCI South Africa Index had seen a major bear market correction to 25.78 points in year 2009 after hitting 152.96 points high in year 2007, now trading at 51.42 after hitting recent Jan 2018 high of 75.96 points, 38% correction from recent high.

With the recent emerging markets technical correction of over 20% enter into a technical bear market, lots of financial analyst expert are calling for a bear market to take place in year 2019.

Our of proportion VISTA theme markets comprising Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Argentina, 4 out of 5 are in a stronger uptrending stock market except South Africa. So are we going to see a financial crisis taking place soon?

iShares MSCI South Africa Index Monthly Chart Historical 7 Dec 2018

iShares MSCI South Africa Index Monthly Chart Historical 7 Dec 2018 with Technical Analysis

Based on above Chart Technical Analysis, all time high in year 2007 is 152.96, fair value is derived at 76.48 points, using simple mathematics formula 1/2 theory following Asian Investment Master Mr. Hu Liyang, Leon's teaching. Undervalue is derived at 38.24 points using 1/2 theory again. Lets take a look at the chart back test this 1/2 theory by Asian Investment Master Mr. Hu Liyang, Leon, price find a bottom at 25.78 after breaching 38.24 undervalue zone for extreme bear market sentiments to be the pivot point of trend reversal. Since hitting 25.78 it rallied up to 77.41 points where the fair value zone is 76.48 resistance point and unable to trade above that zone for a couple of years till year 2018. Now last trading at 51.42 suggest it is a good time to enter VISTA theme market where it had seen a volatile market sell off in year 2018, Bullish sentiment will follow through in year 2019 and beyond where generally market sentiments are 90% bearish in nature because of USA China trade war issues, Strong US dollar performance and rising US treasury yields seen and forecast by most financial markets experts to hit 3.5% by year end 2018 and year 2019 to be the tipping point leading to a major financial crisis taking place.


iShares MSCI South Africa ETF 14 Dec 2018

iShares MSCI South Africa ETF 14 Dec 2018 with Technical Analysis

Above ETF chart Technical Analysis suggest mixture of bullish and bearish chart patterns, bullish chart patterns is observed an ascending triangle (huge) and price seen back test classical support line that connect all the peaks. Bearish chart pattern is observed to be rising wedge using green color line that connect all the peak and blue color uptrending line that connect all the trough which form a support.


Dow Jones South Africa Stock Index 14 Dec 2018

Dow Jones South Africa Index 14 Dec 2018 with Technical Analysis

Based on the charts, there is a mixture of bullish and bearish chart pattern,
bullish chart pattern is observed to be flag & pennant (horizontal flag) where price is seen currently trading in a range.between upper green color classical resistance line that connect all the peaks and purple color line classical support line that connect all the troughs.

Bearish chart pattern is observed to be ascending triangle green color uptrending line that connect all the higher low points is broken. a possible rounding rounding top chart formation emerged if recent and all time high of 2060.96 points seen in Jan 2018.





Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.