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Wednesday, 12 December 2018

VISTA Theme for year 2019 - Turkey ISE National 100 Index Chart Analysis

Turkey ISE National 100 Index is part of VISTA theme that has seen a sell off rout in year 2018 on the backdrop of rising US dollar, rising Treasury yields and emerging markets BRIC and VISTA had their currencies weakening, and stock indexes steep correction.

Emerging markets theme BRIC comprising Brazil, Russia, India and China while VISTA theme comprising Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Argentina.

Turkey part of VISTA is said to have maintain a high US dollar denominated debt.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-reasons-why-the-selloff-in-turkeys-lira-matters-to-global-markets-2018-08-10

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-lira-selloff-compares-to-turkeys-previous-crises-2018-08-14

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/13/turkey-lira-crisis-knocks-emerging-market-currencies-to-multi-year-low.html

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-says-attack-on-economy-no-different-from-attack-on-flag

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_currency_and_debt_crisis,_2018

https://www.google.com.sg/search?q=turkey+sell+off&rlz=1C1CHBF_enSG798SG799&oq=turkey+sell+off&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l2.5299j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8


With post G20 meeting hosted by Argentina concluded on 30 November to 1 December, it was a successful meeting between USA and China where they had implement trade war tariff truce for 90 days.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/a-look-at-what-happened-at-the-g-20-summit-in-argentina/ar-BBQo4La?li=AAgfIYZ

Let us take a look at the charts of VISTA theme attached is Turkey ISE National 100 Index.

We are still at 50th percentile of the bullish market which had many more years to go. Charts display bullish strength where Turkey ISE National 100 Index had seen a retracement correction after hitting 121,500 points high in January 2018.

Turkey despite maintain a high US dollar denominated debt, its stock market has a stellar performance instead of a under performance stock market under the leadership of President Erdogan. Turkey ISE National 100 Index is on an uptrending chart based on historical records till date.

With the recent emerging markets technical correction of over 20% enter into a technical bear market, lots of financial analyst expert are calling for a bear market to take place in year 2019.

Surprisingly, Turkey ISE National 100 Index is less affected by the recent US dollar strengthening and rising treasury yields for it is a weaker stock market index as compared to currency markets Lira had seen a huge selloff where Turkish ISA 100 National equity market should have been greatly affected by the selloff in Turkish Lira, the currency market for maintaining a high US dollar denominated debt.

Our of proportion VISTA theme markets comprising Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Argentina, 4 out of 5 are in a stronger uptrending stock market except South Africa. So are we going to see a financial crisis taking place soon?

Turkey ISE National 100 Index Monthly Chart Historical 7 Dec 2018


















Turkey ISE National 100 Index Monthly Chart Historical 7 Dec 2018 with Technical Analysis
Based on the charts, there is a mixture of bullish and bearish chart pattern,
bullish chart pattern includes ascending triangle, price is seen back testing the lower price channel orange color lines as support and the previous peak range between 71,800 points to 93,400 points as support, will it hold? flag & pennants horizontal flag completed price movement, may see a 2nd wave of horizontal flag breakout after consolidation (swing trade).

Bearish chart pattern include a possible double top M chart formation, rising wedge chart pattern refers to using purple color line connecting all the peaks couple with orange color support uptrending line or lower price channel line. A potential rounding top could emerge resulting in unable to break 121,500 points high seen in January 2018.






Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

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