Price

Fund Flow

Wednesday, 30 August 2017

Shanghai Stock Exchange Index/ Hang Seng Index Charting Analysis

The news of Chinese stock index had been absorbed into MSCI emerging markets indices published on international news portal like CNBC and bloomberg signals there are ample opportunities to tap and seize.

Over the longer term horizon, foreign institutional funds are flowing into Chinese economy, the volume could push assets class into the highs especially into assets class of equities, properties, bonds, commodities and currency (yuan/renminbi).

Amidst over the longer term outlook of appreciating assets value of various assets class, there would be boom and bust, therefore we must understand how to determine overbought/oversold range by applying Asian investment guru master Hu Liyang's half theory which I had been applying his theory and it had shown amazing results.

In one of his books, he wrote on a particular topic of how foreign institutional hot money inflows is determine by 4 highs and 1 low with a global investment framework theme like equating to "BRICs", "VISTA" and "Frontier" markets. example of "BRICs" stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

The 4 highs 1 lows are;

Highs:
1) High GDP growth
2) High domestic demand growth
3) High currency appreciation (yuan/renminbi) gain
4) High investment securities gain

Low:
1) Low consumer price index (CPI)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rallied from 2361 points in Oct 2014 to June 2015 high of 5178 points in a short span of 8 months, on expectations of Chinese markets MSCI inclusion 
and the launch of Shanghai Hong Kong Stock Connect link which is part of the financial market reforms and opening up its market to foreign investors.

With the MSCI Emerging Market Index inclusion, expectations of challenging recent June 2015 high of 5178 points is valid and subsequently all time time of 6124 points in October 2007.
Base on Technical Analysis (TA) on Shanghai Stock Exchange Index charting, it displays a double bottom chart formation in green line and a price channel using black lines as a reference, where its resistance turn support to form new uptrend.

Shanghai Stock Exchange




Hong Kong (SAR) being part of China of one country 2 systems would benefit greatly when they are intertwined by market connectivity. example, Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect, Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect. 

Hang Seng all time high in October 2007 is 31958 followed by October 2008 low is 10676 during the sub prime mortgage crisis.

Base on Technical Analysis (TA), with Chinese markets absorbed into MSCI emerging market indices more foreign institutional flows will push both Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Stock Exchange Index higher challenging all time high of 31958, breaking and creating new all time high. Possible range 35000 to 38000 levels.

Hang Seng



Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Tuesday, 29 August 2017

AUDUSD Chart Analysis

Singaporeans love travelling to Australia for work, studying and enjoying a vacation there. 


Should Aussie dollar continue to strengthen, Singaporeans working overseas will fetch better foreign exchange rate when converting their Australian Dollar salary into Sing Dollar, Singaporeans going to Australia to study may find themselves paying a lot more for their degree.  

Australia is a resource based economy that derived most of its revenue from exporting most of Australia minerals where its domestic economy performance is highly influence by China growth story, where China's demand hungry for Australia resources. if China import less resource from Australia not only will it impact its GDP growth as well as its foreign exchange rate. Theoretically, the strengthening of the currency will see foreign institutional funds inflow into its economy seeking investment yields. 
  
Base on Technical Analysis (TA), 
 Aussie dollar is expected to further appreciating against USD, also known as commodities currencies.  


Weekly chart shows 2 rounding bottom chart formation (1 small in brown color line & 1 Large in orange color line). 


Monthly Chart shows falling wedge chart pattern in black color line, 1 small rounding bottom in yellow color line and 1 large rounding bottom is brown color line. 
  
1st target range is 0.78 to 0.80 currently consolidating. 
2nd target range is 0.86 to 0.88  
3rd target range is 0.94 to 0.95 







Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Monday, 28 August 2017

US Dollar Chart Analysis

Base on the monthly chart on 28.8.17, it has display a yellow line double top chart formation and black color line shows a rounding top chart formation. There are a few classical support line in blue and red color which have to be observe closely for any potential rebound to take place.

What is puzzling that Federal Reserve Central Bank is embarking on interest rate hike path projected 3 times this year in 2017 and had hike 2 times since March and June in 2017, the next upcoming hike could be sometime in September or December 2017. Theoretically and fundamentally, when there is an expectations of interest rate hike US dollar will strengthen with 10 year treasury yield as an indicator. Treasury Yields will sell off refers to price of securities of treasury yield in downward direction and yields goes up.

Technical analysis chart suggest that US dollar is weakening with a target price of around 80 to 82.50.

Hence should US dollar is weakening, it will benefit the commodities currency as a whole and foreign exchange pair will see further upside against US dollar pairing.

President Trump had indicated that he does not wish to see US dollar strengthening which he wish to revive the manufacturing industry and export US goods and services result in more employment growth, more jobs created for Americans.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/04/the-dollar-index-is-doing-something-it-hasnt-since-1986.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/08/dollar-could-be-about-to-hit-an-inflection-point-wells-fargo-says.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/20/bottom-falling-out-of-us-dollar-drops-to-near-2-year-low-vs-the-euro.html

http://time.com/money/4737106/donald-trump-us-dollar-too-strong/

https://www.ft.com/content/d24b7283-ece9-3348-b50c-a5339a8e916d

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/17/trump-just-signaled-death-of-clinton-era-strong-dollar-policy.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-comes-around-to-the-sound-of-the-phrase-strong-dollar-2017-04-12

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-davos-meeting-dollar-idUSKBN15111E

http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/12/news/economy/us-dollar-donald-trump-wsj/index.html



Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Saturday, 26 August 2017

Gold Chart Analysis





CNBC report and quote "The procedure, one of the largest of its kind, was expected to complete in 2020. Cold War fears that the gold could fall into Soviet hands was just one of the reasons the precious metal was stored overseas. The gold stored in Paris was held to be converted into francs in the case of an emergency but now both countries share the same currency." 

There is an unname source quote "Some have speculated Germany wants the gold close at hand should it be needed to back a new deutsche mark in the event of a breakup of the EU and the collapse of the euro. As Handelsblatt Global explains, gold serves as a shield against a currency crisis."  


From 25 August 2017 Chart, I had noticed a nice setup for gold trade. It had broke out from the blue color downtrend line drawn connecting 2011 high to 2016 high where President trump has won Presidential Election in Nov 2016 which had sent gold notching to 52 month high (1 year high) since 2015 trading at 1380 USD. 

After touching 1380 USD Gold scaling from 2016 low is registering 31.5%, had retest 1150 as support which work out to be around 17% correction but still up 9.5% from Jan 2016 low 1050. 

As price of gold is highly violatile due to its nature influencing by performance of US dollar, geo-political tension in middle east and the korean peninsula as a safe haven trade, hedge against inflationary pressure, real interest rate hike and possibly a war that could drive up and down gold price. Gold is a commodities which is price in US dollar denomination hence it is inversely related to the US dollar performance.   

Base on technical analysis (TA)   I had observed Gold had displayed a big possible rounding bottom chart pattern not illustrated, possible cup and handle chart pattern drawn green line. 
  
What chart pattern is confirm is a small green color rounding bottom is form. an inverted head and shoulder chart pattern using blue color downtrend line as a guide not drawn. my realistic target for gold which i think a bigger rounding chart formation should be at the price range of 1500 to 1600 USD. 

Update on SPDR Gold ETF Chart 5.3.19



  
Update on SPDR Gold ETF Chart 5.3.19 With Technical Analysis












Based on above Chart Technical Analysis, i strongly believe by one of the top technical analysis chartist Donovan Ang whose call on gold price to reach 2000 USD as the realistic target.

Bullish chart formation is observed at this stage, long term downtrend line has seen price break out, potential forming a large rounding bottom drawn in orange and green color trendline, price also oscilliate between the upper and lower price channel. 

Current immediate resistance to look out for is 143 and 165 USD price level before any attempt to challenge all time high of 187 USD seen in year 2011. 




  
Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.








Crude Oil WTI Chart Analysis





I am afraid that we will not be seeing low oil price anymore.

Crude Oil WTI has touch an all time low in Jan 2016 at 26.05, hence had seen price recovery to reach and hit 55.02 Jan 2017 which is more than 100% recovery in price.

After touching 55.02 crude oil wti has retest 40 as support which work out to be around 25% correction, but still up 55% from all time low.

International business news began coverage on crude oil where some analyst began to be bearish and call for oil to retest 30s price range over failure by the OPEC oil producer meeting to cut supply and high US EIA inventory data level, supply outweigh demand.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/21/oil-prices-like-a-falling-knife-as-sentiment-hits-all-time-low.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/20/dont-expect-oil-to-reverse-bear-market-anytime-soon-history-shows.html

As price of oil is highly violatile due to its nature influencing by performance of US dollar, geo-political tension in middle east and the korean peninsula, OPEC oil producer meeting to cut oil output (supply), US EIA inventory data, current hurricane that affect the oil rig operations and possibly a war that could drive up and down crude oil price. Crude oil WTI is a commodities which is price in US dollar denomination hence it is inversely related to the US dollar performance. Crude Oil is also a barometer of whether an economy is in a recovery or downturn where in the summer, lots of Americans will drive for a staycation.

There is a reporting by CNBC that President Trump is eagerly waiting to sell 700 million Barrels of oil, so does one think that he is willing to sell at a lower price or higher price given that he is a great businessman, a dealmaker?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-21/u-s-owns-700-million-barrels-of-oil-trump-wants-to-sell-it

Base on technical analysis (TA)

I had observe Crude Oil WTI had display a rounding bottom chart pattern as illustrated by the green line. possibly a small cup and handle pattern which lines are not drawn.

Crude oil WTI has wall of resistance to climb.

1st level resistance is support turn resistance red color classical support neckline is at 52.
2nd level resistance is at 61.
3rd level resistance is resistance blue color line at 73
4th level resistance is support turn resistance red color classical support neckline is at 86
5th level resistance is resistance blue color line at 90.
6th level resistance is resistance blue color line at 117.

my realistic target for crude oil which i think a bigger rounding chart formation should be at the price range of 75 to 90.

http://www.mining.com/web/next-oil-price-spike-may-cripple-industry/

https://www.epa.gov/emergency-response/types-refined-petroleum-products

please refer to the below link for crude oil explaination.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Texas_Intermediate

Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

SGDHKD Chart Analysis

If you are planning for a holiday to Hong Kong, you are in a treat because Hong Kong Dollar is weakening hence Singaporean tourist can fetch a better foreign exchange rate where you can increase your spending power.

I went to Hong Kong for a holiday in December 2016. foreign exchange then was 5.30 which it gradually reduce my spending power as a tourist. US Dollar was strengthening due to Federal Reserve central bank was embarking on an interest rate hike.

What would be your considerations as an individual/ tourist preferring a weakening Hong Kong Dollar or a strengthening Hong Kong Dollar?

Currently, observations on US dollar is weakening on the backdrop of Federal Reserve central bank is expected to raise interest rates 3 X this year in 2017. hence my projections of Hong Kong Dollar is expected to reach SGDHKD is 6 dollars due to Hong Kong Dollar is pegged to US Dollar,

Base on Technical Analysis (TA)

SGDHKD displays double bottom chart pattern in chart 1 on 6 Feb 2017.

Chart 2 it really went to my target classical support neckline black color at 5.7.

Chart 2 you will see a falling wedge chart pattern in blue color trendline resistance and support.

Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.