Price

Fund Flow

Tuesday, 14 August 2018

Smart Monies Fund Flow Analysis - 4 Highs and 1 Low

I am an avid fan of Asian Investment Guru Mr. Hu Li Yang's book on investing in stock markets, therefore would like to share one of his analysis below which is very well written.

Our global funds will be toward the "four high and one low."

Investors ask -  2008 until the second half of the market,wanted to have a low price, you can pick up a cheap ,  but the impact of the global stock market crash, the stock is still in the hands stuck state. One day, Hu met the teacher talked about in an interview, the global stock market is entering hibernation, but the shares of the early hours, immediately relieved of some, Hu also stressed that as a high-low has four advantages, the next 10 years, the focus of the global economy will be in China! This has strengthened my confidence in long-term investment, thank you very much!  

Recently, many TV shows, I most frequently asked the future of the world's best investment opportunities in where? Is still well-loved BRIC BRIC?  Or alternative choice recently come to the fore -VISTA five countries (Vietnam Vietnam, INDONESIA  Indonesia, SOUTH AFRICA  South Africa, TURKEY  Turkey, ARGENTINA  Argentina ? 

My answer is: trying to make money, you have to go along with money! So long as the mastery of the global investment-type funds in the future, will be able to instantly get the correct answer. After the financial crisis, in order to spread the risk, originally stationed in Europe, investment-oriented funds from around the world have plans to find another way out.

Personally visited at least after heavyweight asset management company and understand, I think the world will actively seek funds have four high and one low to another investment environment.

I called four high means:
1)           high economic growth of Gross Domestic Product GDP
2)           high-growth domestic market
3)           a high return on investment securities
4)           high potential currency appreciation

As it is a low
1)           low inflation Consumer Price Index CPI

Four high and one low easy to understand but it must be explained. In my research: as long as the CPI  consumer price index can be controlled in GDP half of GDP or below, in line with the conditions of low inflation.

For example, if China 2009 year GDP was 8% less CPI as long as at 4% within, is in the range of low inflation, which I would call moderate inflation inflation.

Generally moderate inflation on the housing market and the stock market is not only no injuries, but there will be a positive benefit. Okay, Looking at the world economic situation today and compare them, China is indeed the most in line with four high and one low conditions. That's why I always think the future of China will serve the long-term causes of the protagonist on the world economic stage.

In terms of the stock market do? Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have a future super advantage, that is to invest the majority of the population still increased space, the current account population is still only a total population of 10% , the next years increased to 15% of potential great.

In my estimation, in a bull market, each additional 1% of the population accounts can push up the Shanghai Composite Index at least 500 Dao 700 points, just from this point, other global stock markets may have only envy copies.


Mandarin Original Version extract from Asian Investment Guru Mr Hu Li Yang, Leon

https://tradingeconomics.com/

https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E8%83%A1%E7%AB%8B%E9%98%B3




全求资金将奔向“四高一低“

投资人问 – 我在2008年下半年才入市, 本想股价已低,可以捡个便宜但受全球股灾影響,手中股票仍處於套牢狀態。有一天,见到胡老师在一篇專访中谈到,全球股市正进入冬眠,但A股將早睡早起,立即放心了一些,胡老师还强调,由於擁有四高一低的优势条件,未来10年,全球经济的重心將是在中国!这更加强了我长期投资的信心,非常感谢!

最近,在许多电视节目中,我最常被问到未来全球最佳的投资机会是在哪里?仍然是深受喜爱的金磚四国BRIC? 还是近来脱颖而出的另类选择—VISTA五国 (Vietnam 越南,INDONESIA 印尼,SOUTH AFRICA 南非,TURKEY 土耳其,ARGENTINA 阿根廷)

我的回答是:想赚钱,就必须跟著资金走!因此只要掌握全球投资型资金未来的流向,就能立即得到正确的答案。金融海啸之后,为了分散风险,原本长驻欧美,来自全球的投资型资金纷纷计划另谋出路。

在亲自拜访了至少5家重量级的资产管理公司並進行了解之后,我认为全球资金會积极寻找具备四高一低的另一个投资环境。

我所谓的四高指的是:
1)          高经济成长的Gross Domestic Product GDP
2)          高成长的内需市场
3)          高證券投资收益
4)          高本币升值潜力

至於一低则是
1)          低通货膨胀的Consumer Price Index CPI

四高容易理解但一低则必须加以解释。依我研究:只要CPI 消费者物价指数能控制在GDP国内生产总值的一半以下,就符合了低通膨的条件。

举个实例,倘若中国2009年的GDP8%那么CPI只要是在4%之内,就是在低通膨的范围,这种通膨我也称之为温和的通货膨胀。

通常温和的通货膨胀对房市以及股市不但无伤,反而会有正面助益。好的,综观当今世界经济局势並加以比较,中国的確最符合四高一低的条件。这也正是为什么我一直认为未来中国将在世界经济舞台上长期担任主角的原因。

在股市方面呢?深股市未来的发展具备了一项超级优势,那就是投资人口仍有广大的增加空间,以目前开户人口数尚占总人口数的10%来看,未来3年增加至15%的潜力极大。

依我估算,在牛市中,每增加1%的开户人口,可以推升上证指数至少500700点,僅就这点,全球其他股市可能都只有羡慕的份了。

金融海啸之后,竟又出现了欧洲债信危机,未来几年,全球投资型资金将加快脚步陸移居至吻合上述四高一低条件的理想环境。




Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.