Price

Fund Flow

Wednesday, 30 January 2019

Commodities Soybean Technical Analysis

Commodity Soybean has see steep price decline ever since year 2012 reach all time high of 1800 (estimated) in June 2012.

Recently there is a negative new that cause bearish, gloom and doom sentiment that hit commodity soybean pretty much is the Trade War Tensions between United States and China in year 2018.

To counter or retailate US trade war additional tariffs imposed on China, China asked its farmers to grow more soybeans amid trade fights with US.

https://www.npr.org/2018/06/19/621448109/china-tells-farmers-to-grow-more-soybeans-amid-trade-fight-with-u-s

Soybean - Teucrium Soybean Fund ETF has seen price bottoming at price level 15.26 in September 2018 where Trade Tensions ran high with each United States and China both imposing an additional trade tariffs targetting at each other.

However, currently market sentiment has turned for the better with ongoing United States and China meeting and talks to resolve trade war tensions and vowed not to raised additional tariffs targetting at each other and enter a truce of 90 days since the G20 meeting in 30 November 2018 hosted by Argentina.

Recently, China has " took more steps to defuse trade tensions with the U.S., confirming it will remove the retaliatory duty on automobiles imported from America and preparing to restart purchases of American corn" and "China also may buy at least 3 million metric tons of American corn" reported by Bloomberg in 14 December 2018.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-14/china-cuts-tax-on-u-s-vehicles-in-move-to-soothe-trade-tensions

https://www.ttnews.com/articles/trade-war-drives-farmers-corn-china-shuns-us-soybeans

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-soybeans/china-poised-to-buy-more-u-s-soybeans-sources-idUSKCN1OJ2O1

https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-farmers-trade-war-aid-checks-20180923-story.html

An article "A Tale of Two Commodities: China’s Trade in Corn and Soybeans' by Fred Gale Economic Research Service, USDA quote "Since the 1990s, the conventional wisdom was that China‘s growing demand for corn to feed an expanding livestock herd would lead to rising Chinese imports, boosting grain prices and incomes for U.S. farmers eager to find new sources of demand. However, China‘s growing 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Yuan/mu Corn Soybeans Source: National Development and Reform Commission Note: 15 mu = 1 hectare; 8.28 yuan = $1 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1,000 HA Corn Soybeans Source: China National Bureau of Statistics Gale Chap.3: A Tale of Two Commodities 79 China's Agricultural Trade: Issues and Prospects demand emerged in the form of soybean imports that grew beyond most forecasters‘ expectations. China‘s corn imports have not yet materialized."

https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/55021/2/Gale%20Chapter%203.pdf

China need massive imports of Corn to feed its livestock (Pigs) and Chinese one of the main food source staple is stem from Soybeans where it is made into beancurd (Tofu), soy milk, soy flour and soy protein. Soybeans are processed for their oil & protein for animal feeding industry and used for non food industrial products.

http://ncsoy.org/media-resources/uses-of-soybeans/

Wyatt Mingji Lim, Co-Founder at DefensePoliticsAsia.com (2017-present) in quora  quote "while as recent as 1995, China was producing 14 million tons of soy beans and consuming 14 million tons - the number ballooned to 70 million tons in 2011.

So if China were to produce all 70 million tons of soy bean they need, it will mean that they need to convert 1/3 of the grain land to soybean - forcing China to import 160 million tons of grain (which is also more than 1/3 of the total grain consumption in China in 2011).

So, yes China is big, but arable land, there is only so much. China have a massive population to feed, thus, converting land for grain, to soy bean - is extremely impractical, not to mention, impossible.
And just in case you want to say, “我们可以不吃豆!(we can don’t eat bean)” - a lot of the soy bean is not for you, its for your pigs"
https://www.quora.com/Why-does-China-import-soybeans-from-the-US
https://www.fastcompany.com/90240606/chinas-hunger-for-soybeans-is-a-window-into-an-encroaching-environmental-crisis
http://www.earth-policy.org/books/fpep/fpepch9
Commodity Soybean indeed is a buying opportunity should the trade war tension ease and resolve couple with the weakening US dollar could see commodity corn priced in US dollar price rally to new highs.

Lets take a look at the Technical Chart below deciphering price action setup.

Teucrium Soybeam ETF Monthly Histoical Chart 30.1.19


Teucrium Soybeans Monthly Histoical Chart With Technical Analysis 30.1.19


Based on above Technical Anlsysis, Teucrium Soybean Fund ETF all time high is 28.88 seen in June 2012. Fair Value works out to be 14.44 and undervalue price works out to be 7.22. Chart display clearly a bullish price action setup with certain indicators like 20 Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) seen candlestick close above. Price in seen moving in a price channel comprising upper and lower orange color lines and green color median line. Potential big rounding bottom chart formation signals bullish market sentiment is on the cards where the recent trade war tariffs has seen price bottoming out at 15.26 low in September 2018 and price rebound to last close trading price at 16.65. My target for Teucrium Soybean ETF are lised below:

1) 1st Target resistance is between 20.50
2) 2nd Target resistance is 22
3) 3rd Target resistance is 25.25
4) 4th Target resistance is 28.88
5) 5th Target resisstance is 44

http://teucriumsoybfund.com/

Finviz Soybean Monthly Historical Chart 30.1.19


Finviz Soybean Monthly Historical Chart With Technical Analysis 30.1.19


Above Finviz Soybean Technical Analysis Chart display bullish price action setup. It has a potential rounding bottom chart formation couple with falling wedge chart formation illustrated drawn in black color lines. Price has reached support and supported by light blue color classical neckline that connects all the trough and resistance couple with falling wedge black color line support and orange color line rounding bottom support. Price may see resisted and backtest resistance turn support approaching four orange color lines target resistance.


Soybean Historical Chart 30.1.19 source from Barchart


















Soybean Historical Chart 30.1.19 with Technical Analysis source from Barchart























Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Sunday, 27 January 2019

Commodities Corn Technical Analysis

Commodity Corn has seen steep price decline ever since year 2012 reach all time high of 850 (estimated) in June 2012.

Recently there is a negative news that cause bearish, gloom and doom sentiment that hit commodity corn pretty much is the Trade War Tensions between United States and China in year 2018.

Corn Teucrium Corn Fund ETF has seen price bottoming at price level 15.39 in September 2018 where Trade Tensions ran high with each United States and China both imposing an additional trade tariffs targetting at each other.

However, currently market sentiment has turned for the better with ongoing United States and China meeting and talks to resolve trade war tensions and vowed not to raised additional tariffs targetting at each other and enter a truce of 90 days since the G20 meeting in 30 November 2018 hosted by Argentina.

Recently, China has " took more steps to defuse trade tensions with the U.S., confirming it will remove the retaliatory duty on automobiles imported from America and preparing to restart purchases of American corn" and "China also may buy at least 3 million metric tons of American corn" reported by Bloomberg in 14 December 2018.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-14/china-cuts-tax-on-u-s-vehicles-in-move-to-soothe-trade-tensions

https://www.ttnews.com/articles/trade-war-drives-farmers-corn-china-shuns-us-soybeans

https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-farmers-trade-war-aid-checks-20180923-story.html

Commodity Corn indeed is a buying opportunity should the trade war tension ease and resolve couple with the weakening US dollar could see commodity corn priced in US dollar price rally to new highs.

Lets take a look at the Technical Chart below deciphering price action setup.


Corn Monthly Histoical Chart  25.1.19


















Corn Monthly Histoical Chart With Technical Analysis 25.1.19


















Based on above Technical Anlsysis, Teucrium Corn Fund ETF all time high is 52.71 seen in June 2012.  Fair Value works out to be 26.35 and undervalue price works out to be 13.17. Chart display clearly a bullish price action setup with certain indicators like 20 Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) seen candlestick close above. Potential big rounding bottom chart formation signals bullish market sentiment is on the cards where the recent trade war tariffs has seen price bottoming out at 15.39 low in September 2018 and price rebound to last close trading price at 16.35. My target for Teucrium Corn ETF are listed below:

1) 1st Target resistance is between 22.62 to 23.79
2) 2nd Target resistance is 26.35
3) 3rd Target resistance is 30
4) 4th Target resistance is 35
5) 5th Target resisstance is 53

Finviz Corn Monthly Historical Chart 27.1.19













Finviz Corn Monthly Historical Chart With Technical Analysis 27.1.19













Above Finviz Corn Technical Analysis Chart display bullish price action setup. It has a saucer and rounding bottom chart formation, consolidating in a rectangular chart pattern pending for price breakout. Price may see resisted and backtest resistance turn support approaching three orange color lines also known as price channel.




Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.








Tuesday, 22 January 2019

Thailand SET Index Chart Analysis

Thailand, one of south east asian country (ASEAN) is a tourism haven for many tourists, and is well-known for tropical beaches, opulent royal palaces, ancient ruins and ornate temples displaying figures of Buddha and a shopping paradise.

Its Primary exports are mainly  - commodities: textiles and footwear, fishery products (shrimps), agricultural products such as rice, tapioca, rubber sugar, jewelry, automobiles, computers and electrical appliances

According to Wikipedia,

"Thailand is a newly industrialized country. Its economy is heavily export-dependent, with exports accounting for more than two-thirds of its gross domestic product (GDP). In 2017, according to the IMF, Thailand had a GDP of 15.450 trillion baht(US$455 billion), the 8th largest economy of Asia. Its currency, the Thai Baht, also ranked as the tenth most frequently used world payment currency in 2017."
The industrial and service sectors are the main sectors in the Thai gross domestic product, with the former accounting for 39.2 percent of GDP. Thailand's agricultural sector produces 8.4 percent of GDP—lower than the trade and logistics and communication sectors, which account for 13.4 percent and 9.8 percent of GDP respectively. The construction and mining sector adds 4.3 percent to the country's gross domestic product. Other service sectors (including the financial, education, and hotel and restaurant sectors) account for 24.9 percent of the country's GDP. Telecommunications and trade in services are emerging as centers of industrial expansion and economic competitiveness.
Thailand is the second-largest economy in Southeast Asia, after Indonesia. Its per capita GDP (US$6,729) in 2017, however, ranks in the middle of Southeast Asian per capita GDP, after Singapore, Brunei, and Malaysia. In July 2018 Thailand held US$237.5 billion in international reserves, the second-largest in Southeast Asia (after Singapore). Its surplus in the current account balance ranks tenth of the world, made US$49.2 billion to the country in 2017. Thailand ranks second in Southeast Asia in external trade volume, after Singapore.
Thailand's one of countries with the lowest unemployment rate in the world, reported as 1 percent for the first quarter of 2014. This is due to a large proportion of the population working in subsistence agriculture or on other vulnerable employment (own-account work and unpaid family work)."

reference from 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Thailand

http://www.economywatch.com/world_economy/thailand/export-import.html

Thailand SET index Historical Chart 21.1.19













Thailand SET index Historical Chart With Technical Analysis 21.1.19













Based on Technical Analysis, chart is bullish for SET index, it display quite a number of bullish chart formation.

1) price channel formation which made up of upper and lower orange color line and median green color line. it is observed candlestick has broken the lower orange color line support and blue color classical neckline as support which is bearish price action that invite short term traders to short the SET index, currently worldwide smart money fund flow is bullish not bearish. 20Day & 50Day moving average line is turning down see candlestick chart below moving average line.

2) Ascending Triangle chart formation break up, which made up of upper blue color calssical neckline couple with lower orange color line, candlestick is seen a backtest or retest uppest blue color neckline that connect all the peaks as support.

All time high is formed in year 2018 with highest peak 1852.51 points and year 2007 to 2009 (sub prime crisis) high is registered 924.70 points before crashing to year 2009 low of 380.05 points.

It is observed since year 2009 low of 380.05 points, it has increased by almost 400% to year 2013 high of 1649.77 points. there is a block of 400 points with each level as resistance illustrated with bule color neckline that connect all the peaks and trough, first level @800 points, second level @1200 points and third level @1600 points, fourth level @2000 points and fifth level @2400 points. 

Based on price action deduction SET index will reach 2000 and 2400 points from current level 1583.77 points, Another observation is triangulated based on chart formation bullish horizontal pennant formation that synchronize with the analysis of using difference of 1650 points (year 2013 high) - 380 points (year 2009 low) = 1270 points + classical neckline of 1205 points = 2475 points.





Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.




Sunday, 13 January 2019

Hang Seng Chart Analysis

Hong Kong one of the 4 Asian Tiger or Dragon economies, similar to Singapore has become world leading international financial hub centre.

Hong Kong Economy is influence by the performance of US dollar where Hong Kong dollar is pegged to US dollar, action by the US Central Bank Federal Reserve to loosen or tightening its monetary policy could see inflow or ouflow of funds from Hong Kong.

Hong Kong being a country 2 systems administration of China, had a world leading international financial hub centre is a gateway of the west and east,

The weakening of US dollar could see Hong Kong Dollar weakening and could invite fund inflows into Hang Seng pushing assets and equities price higher, higher inflationary pressure seen, Hong Kong tourism will see a boost as well.

Not forgetting Hong Kong/ Hang Seng is influence by the Chinese economy as well, for they are one country 2 systems, lsdt year trade war tensions had seen China Shanghai Stock Index correcting 32% from its recent high hence Hnag Seng is influence by the selloff as well correcting 26.7%, anything figures more than 20% plunge is consider a technical bear market.

Lets see if trade war tariffs is going to be worsen or going to be resolve a turnaround from the technical bear selloff of over 20% in Hang Seng.

Lets take a look at Hang Seng Chart.

Hang Seng 11.1.19
















Hang Seng with Technical Analysis 11.1.19 Monthly Chart















Based on worldwide fund flow analysis, current maecro economic environment is bullish for commodities sector where worldwide govt is spending heavily on infrastruture to boost economy growth, US dollar weakening probably by US central Bank Federal Reserve gradually or pause hiking rates in year 2019 and beyond, High demand for Dr. Copper, Crude Oil (Wti) and increase activity in Baltic Dry Index (seafreight activity transporting commodities) Seaborn trade is booming not contracting by the trade war between US and China.

Technical Charts in Hang Seng is observe reaching 33484 in Jan 2018 as its latest all time high, a correction has seen taking place after trade war tensions in year 2018, from 33484 to 24540, 26.7% correction into technical bear market territory. 24540 support is seen holding with classical neckline in blue color. price is seen moving in a trajectory in a price channel between upper and lower band of Orange Color lines with Green color line as its median. Price is expected to reach the upper band of Orange color line in year 2019 and beyond.



Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.