Trading The Contrarian Style With Clarence Yo : October 2017

Tuesday 31 October 2017

CRB Index is a fund that tracks a basket of various commodities asset class, an array from precious metals, industrial metals, energies to soft commodities.

Mr. Jim Rogers known as James Beeland Rogers Jr. (born October 19, 1942) is an American businessman, investor, traveler, financial commentator and author based in Singapore.

Rogers is the Chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc.

He was the co-founder of the Quantum Fund and creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI).

Once quote" Commodities Bull will last 18 to 20 years, and it all happened in year 2000 from the rise of China'

Reference from Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity – CRB Index

Comprising a basket of 19 commodities, with 39% allocated to energy contracts, 41% to agriculture, 7% to precious metals and 13% to industrial metals. The Index acts as a representative indicator of today's global commodity markets.

A weak US dollar and couple with the global economy recovery is taking place and shape should propel the price of commodities higher in time to come.

Base on TA (Technical Analysis)

1) It is observed that there is a huge falling wedge chart pattern illustrated with orange, purple and red color lines.

2) Light green color lines refer to symmetric triangle chart pattern

3) Dark green color line refers to a rounding bottom (Cup) chart pattern.

4) All time high of CRB Index reach estimated 470 in year ending 2008, hit an all-time low of 155 in year early 2016.

There are multiple levels of resistances to climb a wall of worry.

1) 1st level resistance @ 200

2) 2nd level resistance @ 235

3) 3rd level resistance @ 260

4) 4th level resistance @ 312

5) 5th level resistance @ 391

CRB Index - Monthly Chart 30.10.17

CRB Index - Monthly Chart 30.10.17 w TA

Disclaimer: All news, information and charts shared is purely by my research and personal views only. This is not a trading recommendation or advice but on the basis of sharing information and educating the investment community. Different traders and investors adopt different trading strategies and risk management approach hence if in doubt please approach or seek clarifications with your Financial Adviser, Broker and Banker.

Sunday 29 October 2017

Philippine PSE Index Chart Analysis

Philippine PSE Index, is on a bull run (bullish sentiment) with impressive up-trending chart at the moment rally alongside the other global geographic location financial markets.

Base on TA (Technical Analysis)

PSE Index is poise to challenge psychological resistance level at 10,000 level currently trading at 8295.95 at 27 October closed.

Orange color lines refer to a price channel range where it touches all the peaks and troughs linking them up.

Upper black color line refers to a rectangle where price at trading at a range touches all the peaks and troughs linking them up. below black color lines refer to a classical support range at around 2500 to 3000 level.

Blue color line refers to a cup chart formation with V-shape recovery in price.

Green color line refers to a rounding bottom chart formation.

PSE Monthly Chart Analysis - 29 October 2017

PSE Monthly Chart Analysis w TA - 29 October 2017

Sunday 22 October 2017

MSCI Taiwan Index Chart Analysis

MSCI Taiwan Index is hugely expose to the US Nasdaq tech companies, for example one of them is Apple INC, where its share performance, sales of iPhone, apple watch, iPad products have a direct influence on Taiwan equities market as a whole because companies in Taiwan like Hon Hai and TSMC are direct supplier of electronic component of Apple products.

https://9to5mac.com/2017/08/14/taiwanese-apple-suppliers-see-revenue-climb-almost-10-exports-up-12-5/

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Apple-suppliers-boost-Taiwan-tech-sector-in-July?page=2

Taiwan remain a popular tourist attractions where foreign exchange rate will influence the tourism activity, importing of exporting activity, inflationary pressure in Taiwan.

Singaporeans like to travel to Taiwan so i use the foreign exchange rate of SGDTWD as an example and reference illustrating. Current foreign exchange rate scenario rebounds fulfill our classical support target around 22.50 after hitting a low of 21.50 in mid 2017. The strengthening of Taiwan Dollar could be seen as Taiwan economy is strengthening hence hot money inflow to Taiwan equities market, currency and properties market seeking alpha yield. Moving on from here we may see 2 scenarios surrounding the movement of SGDTWD

1) once it reaches 22.50 to 22.75 classical resistance target, it may see a mild correction to form a chart pattern Cup and Handle to test 23.00 to 23.25 second level classical support line.

2) after reaching 23.00 to 23.25 classical support line converging with red color line (support turn resistance) or blue color resistance line, it shows that this currency pair is forming a downtrend with price target at 22.50 to 22.75 (1st level target) and 21.50 (2nd level target recent low) and 20.00 new low.

With global recovery is taking place and picking up steam, Taiwan equities market is no different to global indices where money is pouring into its domestic economy, hot money inflow seeking alpha yields which will see its equities market challenging previous high and creating new all-time high.

Based on TA (Technical Analysis)

1) MSCI Taiwan Index - is forming an ascending triangle chart pattern with reference MSCI Taiwan Index all time high is 453.74 in year 2000, all time low is 152.95 in September 2001 and 146.77 in October 2008. A green big color line rounding bottom is seen couple with black color line Cup and handle chart pattern. Possible target price for MSCI Taiwan Index is 500 level should all time high 453 is break out successfully using red color support line (price channel) as a guide and reference.

2) Taiwan Index TWI - is forming an ascending triangle chart pattern with reference Taiwan Index TWI all time high is 12000 in 1990s and 2560 in 1991s. Possible target price for Taiwan Index TWI is 15000 level should all time high 12000 is break out successfully.

History Chart on Taiwan Index TWI - All time high 12000 in 1990s and all time low 2560 in 1991s